{"id":88102,"date":"2024-04-10T11:49:46","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T14:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88102"},"modified":"2024-04-10T11:49:47","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T14:49:47","slug":"stronger-inflation-in-2025-on-analysts-radar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/stronger-inflation-in-2025-on-analysts-radar\/","title":{"rendered":"Stronger inflation in 2025 on analysts\u2019 radar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>IPCA at 5% in 2025 worries some economists amid effects of employment in the services sector<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>04\/10\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/XH-1nvQlkWWT3MLgNl5auiGNAZo=\/1118x726:3624x2550\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/a\/H\/zPfuo6QCCtEj8I2dACWQ\/110522bassoli11.jpg\" alt=\"Alexandre Bassoli \u2014 Foto: Silvia Zamboni\/Valor\" style=\"width:592px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Alexandre Bassoli \u2014 Foto: Silvia Zamboni\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the market\u2019s median expectation for inflation in 2025 has been around 3.5% for months, some economists expect inflation to accelerate from this year to the next, especially due to the dynamics of service prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMy biggest concern is the tight job market,\u201d said Alexandre Bassoli, chief economist at Apex Capital. He sees inflation ending 2024 at 4.2% and going to 5% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe monetary easing cycle started amid peculiar conditions, with economic growth that surprisingly accelerated and an unemployment rate that has fallen persistently to its lowest levels since 2015. Economic slack seems to be low,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the economist, it is already possible to see the tight job market translating into higher wages, which puts pressure on inflation in services, especially in more labor-intensive segments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLooking ahead, I don\u2019t see this degree of tightness decreasing; on the contrary. The economy seems to be starting the year stronger than we had thought and I think we will see the effects of interest rates adjustment for a while,\u201d said Mr. Bassoli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c9tore Sanchez, chief economist at Ativa Investimentos, highlights the dispersion of projections for the 2025 inflation. The median estimate in the Focus survey is 3.53%, but it ranges between 3% and 5.1%. Ativa expects an Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) of 3.8% in 2024, accelerating to 4.2% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next year\u2019s inflation should be pressured by services, according to Mr. Sanchez. \u201cWe are experiencing an easing in the monetary policy despite the resilience of services inflation. Therefore, it is not expected to fall, especially because we don\u2019t see the job market weakening,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Sanchez also expects some offset coming from regulated prices, such as urban transportation. \u201cSome prices haven\u2019t been adjusted as 2024 is a municipal election year. That will only postpone inflation a little. Next year, it will come back,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Sanchez also expects more fluctuation in food prices in 2025. \u201cIt is a short-term cycle. In one year, farmers receive higher pay, which encourages an increase in productivity and planted area. The following year, it falls. Then, it rises again. It is natural to see volatility from year to year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, according to Mr. Sanchez, only the prices of industrial goods could bring positive news for inflation in 2025. \u201cIndustry is linked to the international market, where we expect to see inflationary relief. The industry has largely reflected the import of disinflation, which I expect to continue next year, but it may not be strong enough to slow down inflation in 2025 as a whole,\u201d Mr. Sanchez adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gustavo Arruda, head of Latin America research at BNP Paribas, expresses uncertainty about a favorable contribution from industrial goods. \u201cWe buy into the idea that there is disinflation of industrial goods stemming from the global slowdown, from China, and from some lagged effects after the pandemic shock. It aided last year and still aids this year, but for 2025, it appears that this effect will be diminishing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to the pressure on services in the 2025 IPCA, Mr. Arruda points out the perspective of a still expansionary fiscal policy fueling demand, while monetary policy should move towards neutral territory. \u201cI don\u2019t think it will be expansionary, but it won\u2019t be contractionary either, or it may be less restrictive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BNP Paribas projects inflation of 3.5% per year in 2024 and 4% in 2025. If the Central Bank fails to reduce interest rates to 9% per year, as BNP Paribas projects, or a little below that level, at the end of the cycle of cuts, by stopping it sooner than expected, the bank\u2019s estimate for the 2025 IPCA will have to be revised downwards, said Mr. Arruda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Sanchez highlights that Ativa\u2019s projections for the Central Bank\u2019s stance \u201cdiffer slightly\u201d from what the investment firm believes monetary policy should be at present. Ativa anticipates that the key rate Selic will remain steady at 10% until at least March 2025, at which point the Central Bank would begin considering 2026. He added that the Central Bank aims for inflation matching expectations \u201cbut has not been very successful in this endeavor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Projections for the 2025 inflation are crucial not only because the year is already present in the \u201crelevant horizon\u201d that guides the Monetary Policy Committee\u2019s actions, but also because the reading that there is little room for reducing inflation expectations ahead impacts monetary correction and price dynamics, Ita\u00fa Unibanco points out in a report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bank estimates that a shock of 0.50 percentage points in inflation projections for one quarter leads to an increase of 0.36 percentage points in inflation in the following six quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cGiven the dynamics and balance of risks in the current scenario, which, among other factors, involves a more challenging international scenario and resilient economic activity and domestic job market, we see little room for reducing inflation expectations ahead,\u201d economists Julia Gottlieb, Natalia Cotarelli, and Julia Passabom wrote in the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to part of the economists who are wary about the 2025 inflation, one risk is the Central Bank being led to raise interest rates again next year. That possibility also faces uncertainties given the prospect of a change in its team. By the end of 2024, the federal government is expected to appoint a new president and two directors for the Central Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe see an increase in the Selic rate in the second half of 2025 as the most likely scenario given the inflationary situation. The Central Bank will probably be led to increase interest rates in a context of narrow economic slack and pressure on services inflation,\u201d said Mr. Bassoli of Apex. He projects the Selic at 9.25% at the end of this year and 10.5% in December 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uncertainties regarding the Central Bank\u2019s new composition affect inflation expectations for 2025. However, Mr. Arruda of BNP Paribas does not believe the change will necessarily mean the monetary authority will be dovish to the point of avoiding rising interest rates again, if necessary. \u201cEach Central Bank is different. I think it may become more dovish than in the past, but that does not necessarily imply that we are moving towards an extreme situation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Ana\u00efs Fernandes, Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IPCA at 5% in 2025 worries some economists amid effects of employment in the services sector 04\/10\/2024 Alexandre Bassoli \u2014 Foto: Silvia Zamboni\/Valor Although the market\u2019s median expectation for inflation in 2025 has been around 3.5% for months, some economists expect inflation to accelerate from this year to the next, especially due to the dynamics [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24828,24827,24829],"class_list":["post-88102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-ipca-at-5-in-2025","tag-stronger-inflation-in-2025","tag-worries-some-economists"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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