{"id":87790,"date":"2024-03-28T11:30:05","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T14:30:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=87790"},"modified":"2024-03-28T11:30:07","modified_gmt":"2024-03-28T14:30:07","slug":"international-scenario-political-risk-keep-foreign-capital-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/international-scenario-political-risk-keep-foreign-capital-away\/","title":{"rendered":"International scenario, political risk keep foreign capital away"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>International investors have withdrawn R$22 bn from B3 this year, despite seeing opportunities in Brazil<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>03\/28\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/iC9jVgAuDT4L_bZt1tvBrVSxFvM=\/0x0:984x656\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2023\/b\/B\/QAGJrIRnSbTn7OFiSPPg\/b3-foto-divulgacao.png\" alt=\"Foreign investors posted net withdrawals of R$22.19 billion in the secondary segment this year at B3 \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" style=\"width:572px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Foreign investors posted net withdrawals of R$22.19 billion in the secondary segment this year at B3 \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>External uncertainties that have been hitting the domestic stock market are now combined with local interferences, weighing on important shares in Benchmark stock index Ibovespa such as Vale and Petrobras. As a result, the Brazilian stock market has underperformed its emerging peers, in a scenario that also includes a substantial outflow of foreign capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uncertainties involving state-owned companies were added to factors that contributed to the outflow of funds from the Brazilian stock market, a trend observed since early this year. According to the most recent data released by the B3 stock exchange, foreign investors posted net withdrawals of R$22.19 billion in the secondary segment of the exchange (shares already listed) this year until March 22, the highest volume since 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Statements made by people close to the government have been raising concerns since President Lula was elected, but the decision by state-owned company Petrobras not to pay extraordinary dividends raised a flag and led to significant losses in the market. The decision surprised most investors\u2014on the day it was announced, the oil giant\u2019s shares fell by 10%, leading the company to lose R$56 billion in market capitalization. As a result, the company\u2019s preferred stock, which ended 2023 up 94%, is down 4% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the performance of Brazilian shares is well below its peers. A survey by J.P. Morgan reveals that the MSCI Brazil index, measured in dollars, has posted the worst return in 2024, with losses of around 8%. In the same time range, the MSCI China is down 1% and the MSCI for emerging markets is up around 2%. The S&amp;P 500, in turn, is up around 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe have seen a substantial outflow from the stock market since the beginning of the year. However, that should be put into perspective, since, at the end of last year, we saw a very positive inflow. The market rally in November and December was very strong,\u201d said Luis Fernando Azevedo, equity manager at Oriz Partners. \u201cSince earlier this year, the scenario has changed and the market has realized that the pace of interest rate cuts abroad may not be as intense as expected.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHere, we saw some interference involving state-owned companies, which raised concerns. Perhaps it is rather a one-off event than a change in the outlook for the broader market, but the then optimistic foreign investor may have been affected. It is an interference, a reason for an increase in volatility,\u201d Mr. Azevedo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, the recommendation made by Goldman Sachs strategists for investors to bet against Brazilian state-owned companies gained the market\u2019s attention According to the bank\u2019s analysts, the multiples of state-owned companies are too high compared to private sector companies, and possible political interference could lead to cuts in these companies\u2019 ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Renato Jerusalmi, founding partner and portfolio manager at Riza Asset, said that the four stocks mentioned by Goldman\u2014Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Sabesp, and Cemig\u2014should not be placed in the same basket. According to him, BB has the lowest discount to its peers when considering the last ten years. Petrobras, however, when compared to the largest companies in the sector globally, has a discount of 44%, above the range seen in the last five years, which was between 30% and 34%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe are seeing greater intervention in Petrobras. We went from political effect to practical impact, as seen in the decision on the distribution of dividends,\u201d Mr. Jerusalmi said. \u201cThe market digested it and became more defensive, seeking to increasingly reduce its risk [exposure] in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Affected by political interference in state-owned companies, since the multibillion capitalization of Petrobras in 2010, Rio Bravo Investimentos stopped buying assets that have this level of risk, said Evandro Buccini, partner and director of credit and multimarket management at the firm. \u201cMarch was a scary month for the stock market, with Vale and Petrobras performing poorly due to the government\u2019s attempt to interfere in large companies. That is not good at all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Buccini said the issue involving the B3 giants is one of the reasons why foreign investors left Brazil. \u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s the only reason, but it certainly helps. Once bitten, twice shy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Victor Rezende, Augusto Decker, Adriana Cotias, Liane Thedim\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo, Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>International investors have withdrawn R$22 bn from B3 this year, despite seeing opportunities in Brazil 03\/28\/2024 Foreign investors posted net withdrawals of R$22.19 billion in the secondary segment this year at B3 \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o External uncertainties that have been hitting the domestic stock market are now combined with local interferences, weighing on important shares [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24767,24765,24766],"class_list":["post-87790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-foreign-capital-away","tag-international-scenario","tag-political-risk"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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