{"id":87069,"date":"2024-02-09T11:15:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-09T14:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=87069"},"modified":"2024-02-09T11:15:44","modified_gmt":"2024-02-09T14:15:44","slug":"january-higher-than-expected-inflation-doesnt-change-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/january-higher-than-expected-inflation-doesnt-change-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"January higher-than-expected inflation doesn\u2019t change outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Rise in service prices gains attention but shouldn\u2019t affect monetary easing<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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09\/02\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Carla<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Carla Argenta \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s official inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), was higher than analysts expected in January but did not change the scenario of prices slowing down this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The indicator opened 2024 with a rise of 0.42%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The rate exceeded the median captured by Valor Data, which had predicted a rise of 0.36%. In January 2023, the rate was 0.53%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase surprised some economists, who expressed concerns about the possibility of the heated labor market pressuring inflation in the services sector. However, experts emphasize that the result will not prompt revisions to estimates that suggest the continuation of the disinflationary process. In the 12 months leading to January, the IPCA increased by 4.51%, compared to 4.62% in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe magnitude of the [monthly] increase is out of line with expectations and can be alarming if you look at the composition without considering seasonality,\u201d said Carla Argenta, chief economist at CM Capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She cites the food and beverage inflation of 1.38% as an example. Although this was the highest increase for this group since April 2022 (2.06%), the figure was less impacted than expected by the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effect is on a subgroup that primarily includes rice and beans, as well as fruits and vegetables. But while it has driven up food inflation at home [1.81%], it doesn\u2019t seem to be a concern for the coming months. The effects were mostly felt last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sicredi\u2019s chief economist, Andr\u00e9 Nunes de Nunes, reiterated that the impact of climatic events in November and December 2023 may have begun to dissipate, favoring the January 2024 result of the food group\u2014the 1.38% increase was below the projection of 1.55%. Food at home was also below the expectations of Sicredi\u2019s economic team, which had anticipated a rise of 1.99%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Laiz Carvalho, an economist for Brazil at BNP Paribas, points out that the higher-than-expected IPCA in January doesn\u2019t change the outlook. \u201cWe still think that this year\u2019s IPCA will close at 3.5%. It will be largely driven by goods and food at home in the next few observations. We\u2019re already seeing a reversal of these increases in other indices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 0.65% drop in transportation costs also helped economists maintain the scenario. After successive rises since September 2023, the price of airline tickets fell by 15.22%. Fuel prices also decreased by 0.39% in January compared to December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the main point of attention for the disinflationary process, according to Ita\u00fa Unibanco economist Luciana Rabelo, is services inflation, especially those most pressured by labor adjustments. Core services inflation rose by 0.76%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s a little worrying, especially if the services sector comes under more pressure over the year due to the heated labor market,\u201d she said. On the other hand, she comments that the rise seen in January \u201cwas already accounted for\u201d and does not impact the bank\u2019s projection that the IPCA will be 3.6% at the end of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Julio Hegedus, chief economist at Mirae Asset, also points to services inflation as an element that should be closely monitored in the upcoming measurements. \u201cWe have to keep an eye on the food and drink, personal expenses, and services groups. The economy is heating up in low-income services. It\u2019s going to be an impact factor,\u201d he said. \u201cThere may be some demand pressure over the year, not least because the diffusion data remains high.\u201d The diffusion index, which measures the proportion of goods and activities that have increased in price, stayed at 65.3% last month, the same as in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the warning, there is a consensus among economists that none of the data released Thursday by the IBGE will create obstacles to the continuation of the interest rate cut cycle by the Central Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe result for underlying services in January is not something to worry about. We need to see if the movement will be repeated over the next few months,\u201d said the chief economist at CM Capital. \u201cAt the moment, it has absolutely nothing to do with monetary policy. Inflationary inertia is proving to be increasingly smaller, and the impact on adjustments to regulated prices has also been lower. What made it different were seasonal issues that should be reversed soon,\u201d said Ms. Argenta, who expects successive cuts of 50 basis points in the Selic policy rate until the interest rate falls to 8.5% by the end of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Rafael Vazquez, Rafael Rosas, Luiz Fernando Figliagi, \u00cdvina Garcia\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo, Rio and Manaus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rise in service prices gains attention but shouldn\u2019t affect monetary easing 09\/02\/2024 Carla Argenta \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor Brazil\u2019s official inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), was higher than analysts expected in January but did not change the scenario of prices slowing down this year. The indicator opened 2024 with a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24599],"class_list":["post-87069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-january-higher-than-expected-inflation"],"yoast_head":"\nJanuary higher-than-expected inflation doesn\u2019t change outlook - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/january-higher-than-expected-inflation-doesnt-change-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"January higher-than-expected inflation doesn\u2019t change outlook - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rise in service prices gains attention but shouldn\u2019t affect monetary easing 09\/02\/2024 Carla Argenta \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor Brazil\u2019s official inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), was higher than analysts expected in January but did not change the scenario of prices slowing down this year. 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