{"id":86778,"date":"2024-01-24T12:12:12","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T15:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=86778"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:12:14","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T15:12:14","slug":"treasury-will-not-fund-bndes-for-industrial-policy-director-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/treasury-will-not-fund-bndes-for-industrial-policy-director-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasury will not fund BNDES for industrial policy, director says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Industry support measures spread fear about use of public funds<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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01\/24\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Jos\u00e9<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Jos\u00e9 Luis Gordon \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the government\u2019s new industrial policy launched on Monday (22) has raised concerns among economists about the use of public funds to back investments, most part of the amounts were already included in the Brazilian Development Bank\u2019s (BNDES) budget for the coming years. \u201cThere will be no capital injection from the Treasury into BNDES [to support industrial policy],\u201d Jos\u00e9 Luis Gordon, director of productive development, innovation and foreign trade at the development bank, told Valor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the R$300 billion to be invested by 2026 in the new industrial policy, R$250 billion (83% of the total) are expected to come from BNDES. The amount includes loans at market rates, implicit subsidies for innovation at the cost of the Reference Rate (TR, which adjusts savings accounts), and investments in funds (equity).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the case of BNDES, the cost of loans is linked to the Long-Term Rate (TLP), but loans may also be indexed to the dollar in the case of external funding or via the Climate Fund (green bonds). There will also be subsidies via TR for innovation. The development bank also expects to raise funds to lend in the future, including to industry, via Development Credit Bill (LCD), pending on Congress approval, and via Agricultural Credit Bills (LCA). As Valor learned, should the LCD be approved, it could generate additional funds for the bank to lend, but the 2024 figures are unlikely to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is because the BNDES operates with long-term loans and projects take time to mature. The bank\u2019s budget could require more funds in 2025 or 2026, including to lend to industrial companies, but that will depend on economic growth. At the end of December, financial director Alexandre Abreu estimated that in 2024 the bank could lend from R$130 billion to R$160 billion, compared with R$115 billion to R$120 billion last year. The official figure will be known once BNDES releases its fourth-quarter report, in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goal of the current administration, under the helm of Aloizio Mercadante, is to return to growth, which is expected to occur gradually. The aim is to reach 2% of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, with investments of some R$200 billion per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources say the BNDES does not have current funding to sustain such investments. The available funds are enough to ensure a 1.3% share in the GDP. However, should the LCD be approved, the bank could gain momentum to raise and lend more funds, although the market is not sure about the real potential of this security to raise money on a scale enough to back infrastructure projects for long terms, of five or 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Gordon, the BNDES productive development director, notes that the \u201cMais Produ\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d program announced by the government is intended to show the available resources to the productive sector for the coming years, similar to what occurs in agriculture. \u201cIt\u2019s the industry\u2019s Crop Plan,\u201d Mr. Gordon said, in a reference to the program created to boost agriculture. The initiative has been divided into four axes: innovation, exports, productivity and decarbonization. In the exports area, the bank expects to return to back services and intends to create an agency dedicated to international sales, the BNDES Exim, a plan that has been going back and forth for nearly 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the R$300 billion announced, R$271 billion are expected to be granted in loan operations. Other R$21 billion are expected in non-refundable facilities and R$8 billion in capital injection. Mr. Gordon says that the amount will not be used to acquire more shares in companies, but to structure investment funds in which BNDES will act as an anchor, bringing the market along. The R$300 billion figure also considers that R$77.5 billion, or 26%, were approved in 2023, most of it by BNDES, but also by Finep. The idea is to get Banco do Nordeste (BNB) and Banco da Amaz\u00f4nia to join the program, Mr. Gordon said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe \u2018Mais Produ\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 program is important for the economy to grow and for us to have productivity gains,\u201d Mr. Gordon pointed out. Studies show, however, that previous initiatives, in other Workers\u2019 Party (PT) administrations, were not enough to increase the productivity even with the BNDES injecting billions of subsidized funds into specific sectors, dubbed as \u201cnational champions.\u201d The moniker refers to the choice of certain sectors that received support from the state in a previous version of industrial policy. Mr. Gordon claims there were indeed productivity gains. \u201cThe country will not be able to fund the production of machinery and equipment without BNDES,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economists understand the high degree of subsidies from the BNDES in the past pushed the private sector away in granting credit to companies. The private sector only returned after the BNDES downsized and established the TLP as the reference rate in loans. Now, new concerns are raised with the new industrial policy that past mistakes could recur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Gordon said, \u201cWe are in alignment with the government\u2019s budget forecasts, the BNDES is in alignment with [Finance] Minister [Fernando] Haddad\u2019s policy. The bank will not use Treasury funds.\u201d Although the bank\u2019s projections indicate a limited number of subsidies in new industrial policy loans, the market is concerned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armando Castelar, an associate researcher at the Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Getulio Vargas\u2019s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV), says the program announced by the government does not address the manufacturing industry\u2019s biggest problem: low productivity, which leads to a constant loss of participation in GDP. Mr. Castelar notes that the program is focused on subsidizing sectors, and not on reversing the decline in productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhy does that raise concerns among so many people? Firstly, because it is a policy intended to compensate for low productivity, not to increase productivity. It\u2019s a local content policy. As it is local content, taxpayers are paying for that. As it is a commercial barrier, consumers are paying for that. It doesn\u2019t increase productivity, it keeps productivity low,\u201d he argues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economist\u2019s opinion, the government\u2019s initiative prevents the natural selection process and the most efficient sectors from developing. \u201cIt\u2019s a support program for low-productivity companies. The result is that the country\u2019s productivity remains low,\u201d Mr. Castelar said. The second problem, in the economist\u2019s opinion, \u201cis it all has a price, it costs money.\u201d He explains that, to extend subsidies to companies, the government takes money from taxpayers. \u201cBrazil already has a very high tax burden and to provide such subsidies it will have to increase tax burden even further,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sergio Lazzarini, a professor at Western University, has a similar opinion. \u201cWhat is worrying is that we made changes to give some discipline to BNDES loans. The TLP was implemented in recent years, and now we see changes underway to allow BNDES to change the reference rate for loans and capitalize directly,\u201d he points out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the economist, it is inevitable to make connections between this Monday\u2019s announcement (22) and the politics of \u201cnational champions,\u201d especially given uncertainties accompanying the government\u2019s announcement: \u201cIf it is to benefit companies and large groups with the argument that they need to export since they have national technology, we are again talking about national champions. And on a path of potential disaster as it was in the past.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Francisco G\u00f3es, Paula Martini, Rafael Rosas\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Industry support measures spread fear about use of public funds 01\/24\/2024 Jos\u00e9 Luis Gordon \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor Although the government\u2019s new industrial policy launched on Monday (22) has raised concerns among economists about the use of public funds to back investments, most part of the amounts were already included in the Brazilian Development Bank\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[22618,24541],"class_list":["post-86778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-industrial-policy","tag-treasury-will-not-fund-bndes"],"yoast_head":"\nTreasury will not fund BNDES for industrial policy, director says - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/treasury-will-not-fund-bndes-for-industrial-policy-director-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Treasury will not fund BNDES for industrial policy, director says - 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