{"id":86706,"date":"2024-01-17T10:32:49","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T13:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=86706"},"modified":"2024-01-17T10:32:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T13:32:51","slug":"north-northeast-central-west-to-lead-in-income-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/north-northeast-central-west-to-lead-in-income-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"North, Northeast, Central-West to lead in income growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Smaller base, agriculture, investment, and public sector actions explain higher growth in these regions, study shows<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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01\/17\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Angelo<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Angelo Ozelame \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total wage bill of Brazilian households is expected to grow more in the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions than in the Southeast and South of the country in the coming years, according to a study by Tend\u00eancias Consultoria entitled \u201cClasses of Income and Consumption in Brazil: 2023-2033.\u201d The study takes into account the real total wages, excluding inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the period from 2023 to 2027, the consultancy forecasts that the Brazilian total wages will grow by 3.4% per year. The rates are expected to be 4.6% in the North and 4.1% in the Northeast and Central-West. The same pattern appears in the estimates for the period from 2028 to 2033, when the North (4.1%), the Northeast (4%), and the Central-West (3.9%) are expected to report a greater annual increase in total wages than the South (3%) and the Southeast (3.3%) of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not unusual for the country\u2019s total wages to grow at different rates in the five major regions. Experts point to several factors in this scenario of uneven growth of total income from a regional perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of the study, Tend\u00eancias\u2019s economist Lucas Assis, said that the regions with the fastest growth in total wages benefit from a smaller base, which makes growth easier than in areas that are already consolidated, but that each of them also has specific reasons for the movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Northeast, the outlook is for increased public and private investment. The return of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) tends to benefit the region, he said, as does the expansion of production capacity in several sectors, especially oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf in 2022 and 2023 total wages in the Northeast benefited from income transfer programs and increases in the minimum wage, in the coming years the main influences will be public and private investment, which may benefit the local labor market. No further expansion of transfer programs is expected,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the North, the boost will come from public administration\u2014with a significant presence in the local GDP\u2014and the concession of highways and ports. The maturation of investments in the iron ore mining industry will also play a role. \u201cWith the reduction of logistical hurdles, the region is also expected to attract investment,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture, in turn, is behind the income growth expected for the Central-West, said Mr. Assis. \u201cThe Central West is the country\u2019s main agricultural frontier and will continue to grow over the next decade. Reducing transportation bottlenecks will further stimulate production in the region,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Central-West, this faster pace of income growth will be sustained by people like \u00c2ngelo Ozelame and Daniel Latorraca. They are part of the AgriHub network of entrepreneurs, linked to the Mato Grosso Federation of Agriculture and Livestock (Famato). They show the spread of agribusiness in the economy. Mr. Ozelame is the founder of Escola Agro\u2014a school with courses aimed at agribusiness suppliers\u2014and Lucro Rural\u2014a financial management platform for agribusiness, working in the commercial, financial, and tax areas. The 34-year-old comes from a family of small farmers in Espumoso, Rio Grande do Sul state, has a degree in Agronomy from the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel), and worked for several years as an analyst at the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) in Cuiab\u00e1, the state capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He opened Escola Agro while he was still employed, but a year later, in 2018, he began to dedicate himself fully to the business. In 2020, he opened a second business. His income is now 10 times higher than before he became a businessperson, he said. In 2023, Lucro Rural ended the year with six times more customers than the previous year, as well as R$25 billion in invoices processed in customer service. \u201cMore than the financial aspect, I\u2019ve gained a lot of knowledge. The potential of the sector is huge, not only because of the growth prospects for agribusiness but also because of its financial and tax complexity. We help producers make decisions from the front gate, on the economic side,\u201d said Mr. Ozelame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economist Daniel Latorraca saw financial services as an opportunity to work with agribusiness. He founded Creditares, a company that presents itself as a financial services hub for rural producers through financial advisors, the so-called \u201cagrobankers.\u201d The platform currently offers loans and will expand its portfolio to include insurance and hedging tools for operations on the futures market. \u201cI have been following the evolution of agriculture and its impact on the economy in recent years, especially in Mato Grosso. So much so that I was encouraged to take the plunge. In my spreadsheets, agribusiness will continue to grow. If it is going to grow, it is going to need more credit,\u201d said Mr. Latorraca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this more significant income growth in the Northeast, North, and Central-West does not mean a reduction in regional inequalities in the country, said Mr. Assis. This is because the total wages of the Southeast and the South will continue to grow. \u201cRegional disparities are likely to persist for at least the next decade. Even though the most vulnerable regions are experiencing greater income growth than the Southeast and South, the latter regions are also growing. As all regions grow, regional inequality is likely to remain big,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regional dynamic of faster income growth in the Northeast, North, and Central-West goes hand in hand with faster income growth in the higher income classes than in the D\/E class, according to the Tend\u00eancias Consultoria study. This is because the economic recovery tends to benefit the richest, who also benefit from returns on investments, rents, and corporate profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For 2024, the consultancy predicts an increase of 2.9% in the country\u2019s total wages. While in classes D\/E this variation is 1.4%, the pace is over 3% in the other classes: A (3.2%), B (3.4%), and C (3.6%). Between 2023 and 2027, the average annual growth in classes D\/E is 2.2%, half of the 4.4% of class A. Since there are no official criteria in the country for defining income classes, Tend\u00eancias uses the following parameters: class A (monthly household income of more than R$24,200), B (between R$7,800 and R$24,200), C (between R$3,200 and R$7,800) and classes D\/E (up to R$3,200).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the analysis of class A, Mr. Assis said that there is an impact both from the increase in the average income of this group and from the increase in the number of households at the top of the pyramid, reflecting migration from other classes. At the other end of the spectrum, classes D\/E, no major change in income transfer programs is expected to affect the ability of the total wages to expand. \u201cIn the long run, the higher income classes should still lead this income growth. There is an expected migration of households from the lower classes to the higher ones, but it\u2019s still a very slow process,\u201d said Mr. Assis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Assis highlighted the difference between now and the 2000s, when there was a rapid rise of the poorest and an increase in the middle class. \u201cThis last decade in Brazil has been marked by two negative shocks: the recession of 2015\/2016, and the pandemic. So, this growth in the next few years is a positive scenario compared to the last decade, but it\u2019s different from the 2000s,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Lucianne Carneiro\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Smaller base, agriculture, investment, and public sector actions explain higher growth in these regions, study shows 01\/17\/2024 Angelo Ozelame \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o The total wage bill of Brazilian households is expected to grow more in the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions than in the Southeast and South of the country in the coming years, according […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24511,21548,12088,24512],"class_list":["post-86706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-central-west","tag-north","tag-northeast","tag-to-lead-in-income-growth"],"yoast_head":"\nNorth, Northeast, Central-West to lead in income growth - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/north-northeast-central-west-to-lead-in-income-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"North, Northeast, Central-West to lead in income growth - 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