{"id":100583,"date":"2026-11-09T16:00:53","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T19:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100583"},"modified":"2026-11-09T16:00:53","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T19:00:53","slug":"brazil-risks-missing-rare-earths-boom-without-industrial-reforms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazil-risks-missing-rare-earths-boom-without-industrial-reforms\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil risks missing rare earths boom without industrial reforms"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Researchers at Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Dom Cabral warn that labor, logistics, energy, tax barriers could prevent country from developing processing capacity<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-11-09T09:34:06.015-03:00\">11\/09\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/dllfOEsPI3VnGpfbdT4fky_nbdU=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/2\/w\/k2YPasRd6xZYYLqbBvGQ\/foto09bra-101-fdc-a8.jpg\" alt=\"Paulo Vicente Alves \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" width=\"340\" height=\"233\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\">P<em>aulo Vicente Alves \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"93\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazil sits atop one of the world\u2019s greatest mineral resources, but risks watching the technological revolution now underway from the sidelines, serving merely as a supplier of raw materials. With the world\u2019s second-largest mapped reserves of <strong>rare earths<\/strong>, estimated at 21 million tonnes, the country has enormous strategic potential amid the global race for critical minerals, driven by the energy transition and artificial intelligence. Researchers at <strong>Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Dom Cabral (FDC<\/strong>), however, warn of a structural gap between Brazil\u2019s geological potential and the State\u2019s actual ability to lead an industrial policy in this direction.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"101\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For the experts, their skepticism stems from Brazil\u2019s longstanding inability to overcome systemic constraints in its business environment. \u201cIt is difficult because Brazil\u2019s economic environment is not conducive to industrial development. We have labor and logistics bottlenecks. For investors with the capacity to put money into the sector, the most pragmatic approach is to come to Brazil to extract rare earths and take them elsewhere for processing, to Paraguay, for example, where there is sufficient energy, cheaper land and better tax conditions for manufacturing,\u201d said FDC professor <strong>Paulo Vicente Alves<\/strong>, a former deputy secretary for planning in Rio de Janeiro state.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"78\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIt is unlikely that Brazil will get out of this predicament without a complete overhaul of its economy,\u201d Alves added. \u201cIt would have to pursue a strategy similar to the one <strong>China <\/strong>adopted back in the 1980s, creating special economic zones where, as a rule, a different set of laws would apply, instead of Brazilian legislation, to encourage the industrial processing of rare earths within the country. I see no appetite whatsoever in the government for doing that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Despite their skepticism, FDC researchers dismiss the risk that the country\u2019s substantial mineral reserves across several regions could trigger <strong>\u201cDutch disease,\u201d<\/strong> a macroeconomic phenomenon in which a commodity export boom drives up the national currency and undermines the competitiveness of other industrial sectors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"94\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cFor Dutch disease to occur, the rare earths sector would have to account for a significant share of Brazil\u2019s economy, siphoning resources away from other parts of it,\u201d said <strong>Carlos Primo Braga<\/strong>, an associate professor at FDC and a former director of economic policy and debt at the World Bank. \u201cIn Brazil\u2019s case, Dutch disease is much more closely associated with what happened with the pre-salt oil reserves and the expansion of the oil industry. Brazil is a vast country, and the rare earths sector does not have that kind of weight,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"58\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the experts\u2019 view, the immediate risk is not excessive currency appreciation caused by an influx of foreign exchange from rare earth exports, but rather a repeat of the extractive model in which Brazil mines raw ore, exports it and later imports finished products or pays royalties for technological services developed abroad, without building its own processing capacity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe most likely outcome is that we will end up repeating what happened with our iron ore reserves. We are exporters, but we do not add value. One of Brazil\u2019s problems is its chronic inability to move up the value chain,\u201d Alves said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"74\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He points out that the main bottleneck for any industrial policy involving rare earths and critical minerals is not mining or the discovery of deposits, but high-purity processing\u2014a capital-intensive activity requiring massive scale that is dominated by China, which controls about 85% of processing capacity. To overcome this entry barrier, countries seeking to establish themselves in the sector face high setup costs and must compete with Chinese assets that have already been fully depreciated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cOnce a competitor has achieved scale, entering the market as a second mover means overcoming a very difficult barrier to entry. Can we start small? That doesn\u2019t work. You either come in at scale or you don\u2019t come in at all,\u201d Alves said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In Brazil\u2019s case, the challenge of developing processing capacity is compounded by a domestic business environment that FDC experts describe as \u201chostile\u201d to manufacturing. They cite chronic logistics and infrastructure bottlenecks, structural shortcomings in the training of skilled workers, high energy costs, and \u201cdramatic\u201d tax complexity, which places Brazil among the lowest-ranked countries in the <strong>World Bank\u2019s Doing Business index<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"62\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe main issue in Brazil is that the business environment remains one of the most challenging in the world. In the latest edition of the Doing Business report, Brazil ranked 124th out of 190 economies. In the specific area of taxation, it ranked 184th. That gives you an idea of how difficult it is to produce and export in Brazil,\u201d Braga said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/chebAx2bIAUSvd6HMCuMKzHSq0M=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/r\/e\/XSedlIRviBRQIOS8cDYw\/foto09bra-102-fdc-a8.jpg\" alt=\"Carlos Primo Braga \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" width=\"351\" height=\"240\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Carlos Primo Braga \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"64\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">According to the professor, Brazil\u2019s institutional rigidity stands in contrast to the track record of Asian countries that led industrialization drives in the last century. While <strong>South Korea <\/strong>tied subsidies and government protection to strict benchmarks for international market access and performance, Brazil\u2019s industrial policy has historically focused on the domestic market, shielding companies from inefficiencies without requiring them to compete globally in return.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"69\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cLooking at the growth experience of Brazil and South Korea from 1950 to 1980, industrial expansion in both countries was very similar. But the difference is that Brazil\u2019s industrial policy has historically been inward-looking, focused on exploiting the domestic market. In South Korea, there were subsidies and protection, but subject to a very simple rule: favored industries had to perform in international trade to keep receiving incentives,\u201d Braga said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"78\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The FDC professors consider it unrealistic, given the current stage of Brazil\u2019s economy, to aim to develop the entire supply chain, from rare earth mining to the manufacture of semiconductors and robots. Instead, they suggest that a viable approach would be to specialize in strategic stages of mineral processing and industrial production. This could mean focusing on specific niches in assembly, components, or strategic support services, in partnership with Western powers seeking to diversify their suppliers beyond China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Both experts emphasize that Brazil should pursue the creation of \u201cislands of efficiency,\u201d such as <strong>Export Processing Zones (EPZs)<\/strong>, which function as industrial districts designated as free-trade areas for international commerce. Braga noted that Brazil already has successful examples, including the Cear\u00e1 EPZ, within the Pec\u00e9m Industrial and Port Complex (CIPP), as well as special tax regimes that have benefited Embraer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"84\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cHow is it possible for Embraer to be the world\u2019s third-largest aircraft manufacturer in a country like Brazil? It has a lot to do with the special treatment the company receives. About 60% to 65% of the value added in its sophisticated aircraft comes from imported foreign components. When those products arrive in Brazil, they are cleared for delivery to the factories within 24 hours. From Embraer\u2019s perspective, Brazil operates like Singapore. For most Brazilian companies, however, it operates with extreme bureaucracy,\u201d Braga said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Dom Cabral researchers concluded that the window of opportunity created by global demand for rare earths will not remain open while Brazil waits for slow-moving reforms. \u201cI wish I could say otherwise, but I think it will be very difficult for Brazil to ride this wave in the right way,\u201d Alves said.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\">By Rafael Vazquez\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/li>\n<li data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\">Source Valor International<\/li>\n<li data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\">https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers at Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Dom Cabral warn that labor, logistics, energy, tax barriers could prevent country from developing processing capacity &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/09\/2026\u00a0 Paulo Vicente Alves \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o Brazil sits atop one of the world\u2019s greatest mineral resources, but risks watching the technological revolution now underway from the sidelines, serving merely as a supplier of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27251,27252],"class_list":["post-100583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazil-risks-missing-rare-earths-boom","tag-without-industrial-reforms"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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