{"id":100579,"date":"2026-11-09T15:12:27","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T18:12:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100579"},"modified":"2026-11-09T15:12:27","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T18:12:27","slug":"brazils-market-sees-rates-holding-at-13-75-through-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-market-sees-rates-holding-at-13-75-through-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s market sees rates holding at 13.75% through 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Major banks, investment firms see little room for Selic rate cuts amid worsening inflation prospects, fiscal uncertainty<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Central Bank\u2019s communication following latest Copom meeting increased market concerns \u2014 Photo: Rodrigo Oliveira\/Caixa<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n
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Market sentiment toward the government remains sour, signaling that the room for Selic rate<\/a> cuts has become extremely limited as the inflation outlook deteriorates. Major investment firms in S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s financial district, known as Faria Lima, now forecast that the benchmark interest rate will remain at 13.75% throughout 2027. Meanwhile, the interest-rate market continues to price in the risk of the Selic returning to 15% next year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The yield curve reflects an implied increase of about 25 basis points in the Selic by the January meeting, followed by further hikes throughout 2027, pushing the rate to around 15% by the end of next year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Economists\u2019 forecasts, however, rarely include rate hikes next year. The scenario increasingly taking hold, particularly after the Central Bank<\/strong>\u2019s communication at its latest policy meeting, is that rates will remain at 13.75% through the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Firms that do not expect rate cuts include Ace Capital, BTG Pactual, Genoa, Ita\u00fa, Legacy, Morgan Stanley, Truxt Investimentos, and XP.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The rationale rests on two main concerns. The first is the deteriorating outlook for Brazil\u2019s public debt following President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019s unexpected reelection.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Markets also widely perceive that the inflation outlook is deteriorating. Beyond currency depreciation, economists point to a series of factors that could put upward pressure on inflation in 2027. These include oil prices, the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern, tax reform, and the proposed end of the six-day workweek with one day off, known as the 6×1 schedule. The update to the basket of goods and services and the weights used to calculate the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA)<\/strong>, based on the 2024-2025 Household Budget Survey (POF), could also push inflation higher, depending on the new composition and price trends, some economists say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Arthur Carvalho, chief economist at Truxt Investimentos<\/strong>, forecasts IPCA inflation of 6.5% next year. In a more adverse scenario for food and fuel prices, inflation could reach 8% in 2027.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Arthur Carvalho, of Truxt \u2014 Photo: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u201cCutting interest rates in an environment of accelerating inflation and unanchored expectations does not seem like prudent monetary policy. The Central Bank demonstrated that in its latest decision, when it chose to pause its rate-cutting cycle,\u201d the economist noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In his view, the monetary authority should resume raising rates next year, even though Truxt\u2019s baseline scenario is for rates to remain unchanged. \u201cThe bar they have set for further rate hikes is very high, with the Selic described as \u2018substantially contractionary.\u2019 I believe that assessment is mistaken. If a worse inflation scenario materializes, it will become clear that the real interest rate\u2014the one that actually matters to the economy\u2014is not as contractionary as the Central Bank believes. Once policymakers recognize that, the debate over rate hikes should resume,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Among the institutions tracked by Valor<\/strong>, Oby Capital is one of the few forecasting interest rate hikes in 2027, projecting that the Selic will reach 14.50% next year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Camilo Cavalcanti, of Oby Capital \u2014 Photo: Masao Goto Filho\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Camilo Cavalcanti<\/strong>, a partner and portfolio manager at the firm, said the Central Bank should have spelled out what outcomes it expects to see when describing the rate as \u201csubstantially contractionary,\u201d how long it expects those conditions to take to materialize, and what deviations would warrant a change in strategy. \u201cWithout those criteria, the expression risks becoming a conclusion shielded from the evidence that should be used to test it. Commitment to the inflation target requires more than simply stating that interest rates are high. It requires showing why they are high enough and how long they will need to stay that way,\u201d he argued.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Expectations of rate hikes are also limited by the prospect of increasingly weak GDP growth in 2027. In recent days, revised forecasts released by financial institutions have pointed to economic growth of less than 0.5%, with some firms already projecting a contraction next year, including Genoa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Leonardo De Paoli, a partner and economist at Legacy Capital<\/strong>, said stagflation in 2027 is the firm\u2019s baseline scenario. The Selic\u2019s prolonged stay at a high level should further slow consumption and constrain corporate investment, resulting in zero GDP growth. On the inflation front, a series of shocks related to the exchange rate, taxes, and labor costs, as well as higher oil prices throughout 2026, will keep IPCA inflation in a range of 5.5% to 6%. Legacy currently forecasts inflation of 5.7% in 2027, with risks tilted to the upside.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Leonardo De Paoli, of Legacy Capital \u2014 Photo: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Against this backdrop, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is likely to keep the Selic unchanged at 13.75%, but confidence in that forecast is low, De Paoli said. \u201cThere is uncertainty about the economic policy the government will pursue going forward, particularly because the measures announced during this election cycle, if implemented, are likely to make the challenge of fiscal consolidation even greater,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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De Paoli also notes that, despite the deterioration in the inflation outlook, the monetary authority has shown to be sensitive to the economic slowdown. \u201cIt seems to be a Central Bank that would need to see a much greater deterioration than what has occurred since the second-round election results before increasing the degree of monetary policy restraint,\u201d the economist said. \u201cEconomic activity appears to carry significant weight in its reaction function. Unless there is a substantial worsening in the exchange rate, the Central Bank is unlikely to move,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Legacy economist emphasized that, beyond fiscal problems and the economic cycle, the market is concerned about the government\u2019s appointments to lead the Finance Ministry and, in particular, to fill vacant seats on the Central Bank\u2019s board. In his view, the Planalto Palace\u2019s overtures to figures associated with heterodox economic views, along with discussions about changing the 3% inflation target, have unsettled market participants in recent weeks. Investors fear the Central Bank could adopt a reaction function that places less emphasis on inflation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThis is a concern in the market. The names the President Lula appoints to the Central Bank could matter even more to investors than his choice for the Finance Ministry,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Among the names under consideration, economist Andr\u00e9 Roncaglia<\/strong>, currently Brazil\u2019s representative at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)<\/strong>, has caused concern among market participants. De Paoli also believes that resuming the rate-cutting cycle would be challenging even if the government pledged credible spending-side fiscal adjustments, since the market would demand their \u201ceffective implementation,\u201d a process that would take time. \u201cThere would obviously be a significant easing of risk premiums, especially because the bar for positive surprises from the government is very low,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to XP<\/strong> Investimentos<\/strong>, the exchange rate will be crucial to the Selic\u2019s trajectory next year. \u201cThe Copom could resume monetary easing if financial assets stabilize and the inflation outlook improves. Alternatively, it could raise rates again if economic fundamentals warrant it,\u201d said economist Rodolfo Margato<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Morgan Stanley <\/strong>does not expect any Selic cuts in its baseline scenario, as fiscal uncertainty and its implications for inflation expectations are likely to limit the scope for monetary easing. The bank nevertheless acknowledges that risks are tilted toward lower rates because of weakening economic activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The U.S. bank\u2019s strategy team notes that Brazil\u2019s yield curve commonly incorporates rate-hike premiums during periods of intense fiscal uncertainty. \u201cBut those increases materialized only in the two previous episodes of perceived fiscal dominance, in 2015-2016 and 2024, when the Central Bank was already raising interest rates. In other words, a higher hurdle would have to be overcome to shift from rate cuts to hikes this time,\u201d the team said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Morgan Stanley\u2019s assessment, the Central Bank could be forced to raise rates if volatility in the real increases again and inflation expectations for 2029 reach 4.50%, the upper limit of the tolerance band around the inflation target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cAccording to the latest Focus survey, expectations for 2029 are around 4%, up approximately 0.5 percentage point since the election. We note, however, that they have already reached this level in previous years, including during the debate over the inflation target in 2023. A level of 4.5%, by contrast, would signal an unprecedented de-anchoring of long-term expectations in recent history and could be enough to force the Central Bank to reaffirm its commitment to the inflation-targeting regime,\u201d the team concluded.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Gabriel Roca,\u00a0 Gabriel Caldeira\u00a0and\u00a0Victor Rezende , Valor \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Major banks, investment firms see little room for Selic rate cuts amid worsening inflation prospects, fiscal uncertainty       11\/09\/2026 Central Bank\u2019s communication following latest Copom meeting increased market concerns \u2014 Photo: Rodrigo Oliveira\/Caixa Market sentiment toward the government remains sour, signaling that the room for Selic rate cuts has become extremely limited as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27250],"class_list":["post-100579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-market-sees-rates-holding-at-13-75-through-2027"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil\u2019s market sees rates holding at 13.75% through 2027 - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-market-sees-rates-holding-at-13-75-through-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s market sees rates holding at 13.75% through 2027 - 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