{"id":100573,"date":"2026-11-09T14:37:01","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T17:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100573"},"modified":"2026-11-09T14:37:01","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T17:37:01","slug":"economists-say-fiscal-discipline-can-coexist-with-social-protection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/economists-say-fiscal-discipline-can-coexist-with-social-protection\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists say fiscal discipline can coexist with social protection"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>Slowing mandatory spending growth, rather than cutting benefits, is key to stabilizing Brazil\u2019s debt and preserving social programs, experts say<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-11-09T07:01:32.541-03:00\">11\/09\/2026 <\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/DikcJhY5dtp6WIWulO_z64h-4FA=\/0x0:724x1132\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/b\/W\/P9Eva0SQyQBWvheczWTg\/09bra-100-fiscal-a4-img02.jpg\" alt=\"Rafaela Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 Foto: Washington Alves\/Valor\" width=\"305\" height=\"477\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Rafaela Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 Photo: Washington Alves\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Bringing Brazil\u2019s public finances under control will require slowing the growth of mandatory spending, but economists interviewed by Valor say that does not mean dismantling the social safety net guaranteed by the Constitution. Rather, fiscal consolidation is essential to preserving social programs over the long term and ensuring the government has resources to respond to emergencies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"65\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">This is the first article in &#8220;False Dilemma&#8221;, a series exploring how Brazil can reconcile fiscal responsibility with efforts to reduce inequality. The reports will examine the challenges of keeping social protection programs sustainable, tackling privileges and improving public-sector efficiency. <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/measures.globo.com\/v1\/click?c=busca-headless&amp;h=8de6593f953436e326357eb553109fb2ac36281ccda32f05f39b7bb20c952949556f66204e2ff5321afd09e6f13125b5e556c5964e9696507005f5897c265436&amp;k=globocom.busca-headless&amp;pa=1&amp;po=7&amp;q=inequality&amp;qid=valorinternational.info_query_recency&amp;rid=eacb6c139e8cce6f7360bb67961886d1&amp;t=valorinternational&amp;ts=1794218241&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fvalorinternational.globo.com%2Feconomy%2Fnews%2F2026%2F11%2F03%2Finequality-is-a-drag-on-brazils-gdp-economists-say.ghtml&amp;_gl=1*i2iwsm*_ga*NjMzMTY3MjY1LjE3NDI5Nzc1OTU.*_ga_NWTRTWY1TF*czE3OTQyMTgwODQkbzgzMiRnMSR0MTc5NDIxODI0MSRqMjUkbDAkaDA\">Other articles will explore the economic costs of inequality<\/a>, including its impact on productivity, as well as indicators of violence in Brazil, among other issues.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"67\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Unchecked public spending can fuel inflation, which hits low-income households hardest, said <strong>Rafaela Vit\u00f3ria<\/strong>, chief economist at Inter. \u201cInflation is not out of control today, but we are paying the price of high interest rates to keep it low. Households are burdened with debt because of this. Fiscal discipline matters because it helps improve the well-being of low-income people. It is an indirect form of social welfare.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Br\u00e1ulio Borges<\/strong>, a director at LCA and researcher at the Brazilian Economics Institute of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), warned that prolonged fiscal instability could ultimately force the government to print money to service its debt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThat results in too much money circulating in the economy, the currency depreciates and inflation rises. And the inflation tax is regressive.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The proposals for curbing spending growth bear little resemblance to the sweeping cuts to primary expenditure imposed by Argentine President <strong>Javier Milei <\/strong>in 2024. Instead, economists point to changes in Brazil\u2019s minimum wage policy as one of the most important steps toward fiscal consolidation. Their proposals would preserve purchasing power while allowing annual increases of between 0.5% and 1.5% above inflation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Some argue that the best approach would be to sever the link between the minimum wage and pension and social assistance benefits. Other recommendations include ending the automatic link between health and education spending and government revenue, imposing an effective ceiling on total expenditure, eliminating fraud and reducing overlap among social programs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Although the economists differ on how these changes should be implemented, they agree that fiscal responsibility and social protection are not mutually exclusive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"46\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Borges pointed to President <strong>Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019<\/strong>s first administration as evidence. \u201cWhen he took office in 2003, he raised the primary surplus target from 3.75% to 4.25% and created [cash-transfer program] Bolsa Fam\u00edlia. That shows there is no incompatibility between fiscal and social policies.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Marcos Lisboa<\/strong>, former president of Insper and economic policy secretary during Lula\u2019s first term, said constitutional and legal restrictions make substantial cuts to major spending categories difficult. Wages and pensions cannot be reduced, while pension, health and education spending are subject to their own adjustment formulas and revenue-linked requirements.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"17\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Slowing expenditure growth is therefore the more viable option, although Lisboa also favors removing those automatic links.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Carlos Kawall<\/strong>, founding partner of Oriz, noted that no presidential candidate had advocated a draconian fiscal policy involving an immediate reduction in benefits equivalent to 2% or 3% of GDP.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"67\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWhat is being proposed is a policy to contain the growth of social spending, keeping that expenditure from rising as a share of GDP, and changing indexation rules so that, within five years, we can put public debt on a path toward stabilization. That signal would bring interest rates down and prevent the crisis we could face if we stick to the cosmetic measures suggested so far.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Debt pressures<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"17\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Economists warn that Brazil\u2019s current debt burden and the pace at which it is growing are unsustainable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Central Bank data show that gross general government debt reached <strong>82.93%<\/strong> of GDP in September, up 5.09 percentage points from a year earlier. In December 2022, the ratio stood at <strong>71.68%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The 12-month nominal deficit reached <strong>9.5% <\/strong>of GDP in September, compared with 4.6% in December 2022, reflecting the burden of high interest rates. At its most recent meeting, the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) held the benchmark Selic rate at <strong>13.75%<\/strong>, interrupting its previous easing cycle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Samuel Pess\u00f4a<\/strong>, an economist at BTG Pactual and researcher at FGV Ibre, said an economy operating with a <strong>real benchmark interest rate of 8% a year<\/strong> cannot be considered healthy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe Brazilian economy is sick. Unless we bring interest rates down, we will enter a crisis. No economy can withstand interest rates this high for very long. And if we force the Central Bank to cut rates, inflation will return. We have done that before.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Economists say stabilizing public finances will require slower spending growth, including on pensions and social assistance, given their weight in the federal budget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">A report by the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) shows that pension benefits totaled <strong>R$1.03 trillion<\/strong> in 2025, while spending on the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), a social assistance program, reached <strong>R$127.2 billion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Together, the two programs accounted for <strong>9.1% of GDP<\/strong> and <strong>48.2%<\/strong> of central government primary expenditure. The proposed 2027 budget projects combined spending of <strong>9.2% of GDP<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe debate is not about whether social protection should be maintained. It is about how quickly that protection should improve. I support a 0.5% annual real increase in the minimum wage. That was the average growth rate of labor productivity over the past 40 years,\u201d Pess\u00f4a said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"28\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Productivity, he explained, determines the pace at which resources expand in the economy. \u201cSome advocate a 2% real increase, but that is incompatible with what the economy can deliver.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"20\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Since 1995, the minimum wage has risen <strong>195%<\/strong> in real terms, while labor productivity has increased just <strong>22%<\/strong>, he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"3\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Minimum wage reform<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Under current rules, real increases in the minimum wage automatically raise the floor for pensions and social assistance benefits such as the BPC. As a result, pay increases for active workers also drive up a substantial portion of federal spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fernando Veloso,<\/strong> research director at the Institute for Social Mobility and Development (IMDS), said this arrangement has no parallel in other countries, where pension adjustments generally aim only to preserve purchasing power.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"33\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazil\u2019s current formula adjusts the minimum wage for inflation plus GDP growth, subject to a cap of 2% on real gains. Veloso argues that linking benefits to the minimum wage makes wage increases more expensive for the government and complicates spending control.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"34\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He proposes adjusting the minimum wage for inflation, as measured by the IPCA consumer price index, with real gains tied exclusively to labor productivity. Pensions, meanwhile, would receive inflation adjustments plus a real increase that would not necessarily match the minimum wage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"36\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Gabriel Leal de Barros<\/strong>, chief economist at ARX, also supports real minimum wage increases of 0.5% a year, reflecting productivity growth. But he believes the best solution is to eliminate the link between the minimum wage and pension and social assistance spending, even if doing so requires the government to invest political capital in a constitutional amendment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"37\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe need to cut that umbilical cord. It is worth the effort because the impact on market expectations would be enormous. It would radically change the trajectory of public finances, affecting the yield curve and the Treasury\u2019s borrowing costs.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"38\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The goal, Barros emphasized, is to preserve the purchasing power of pension and social assistance benefits, \u201cwithout any loss in real terms.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"39\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fabio Giambiagi,<\/strong> also a researcher at FGV Ibre, proposes creating a separate national wage floor for the labor market. Initially set at the same level as the minimum wage, it would subsequently increase at a faster pace, without automatically passing the full adjustment on to minimum pension benefits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"40\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The arrangement would allow wages for active workers to continue rising in real terms while limiting the impact on pension spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"35\" data-block-id=\"41\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThis is not a squeeze on retirees. A squeeze means a reduction,\u201d Giambiagi said. \u201cThe minimum wage and the pension floor would continue to rise, but the increase would be larger in the labor market.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"42\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Giambiagi also advocates freezing spending growth in real terms in 2027, the first year of Lula\u2019s fourth term, followed by a rule limiting annual increases to inflation plus 1.5%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"13\" data-block-id=\"43\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He stressed that the proposal is fundamentally different from an abrupt spending-cutting program.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"44\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cMilei reduced Argentina\u2019s primary spending by 27% in real terms in 2024. In Brazil, that would not only be unworkable but an aberration,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"45\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For Giambiagi, a commitment to zero real spending growth in the first year would provide an opportunity to put public finances in order and signal a change in fiscal direction, without triggering a contraction comparable to Argentina\u2019s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"47\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Budget rigidity<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"48\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Beyond minimum wage reform, economists broadly agree that Brazil\u2019s current fiscal framework has lost coherence because its overall spending ceiling coexists with expenditure commitments linked to revenue growth, particularly in health and education.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"49\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">As a result, measures designed to boost tax revenue also increase some mandatory expenses, which account for more than <strong>90%<\/strong> of spending in an already highly rigid budget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"50\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The government has also introduced mechanisms allowing certain expenditures to be excluded from the fiscal rules, further weakening the framework\u2019s ability to restrain total spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"51\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For health care, Giambiagi proposes aligning the minimum spending requirement with the overall expenditure ceiling. In other words, mandatory health spending would follow the same adjustment formula as the fiscal framework.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"52\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The government could still allocate additional resources to the sector, but those funds would have to compete with other budget priorities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"53\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In education, Giambiagi recommends adjusting federal contributions to the Fund for the Maintenance and Development of Basic Education (Fundeb) by inflation alone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"54\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">His argument is that Brazil\u2019s school-age population is shrinking because of demographic changes, making it possible to increase spending per student in real terms even if total funding remains constant after inflation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"20\" data-block-id=\"55\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Barros said reforms to health and education spending must involve not only the federal government but also states and municipalities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"56\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Borges noted that congressional earmarks and spending through the Federal District Constitutional Fund (FCDF) are also linked to revenue and should be reviewed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"57\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Together, changes to those spending links and the minimum wage policy would account for \u201c70% of the spending-reduction package,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"14\" data-block-id=\"58\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Borges considers limiting annual real minimum wage increases to between 1% and 1.5% \u201cfeasible.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"59\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/aLVHl_L5hxTx8i-UB8LKNTl4LkY=\/0x0:757x1185\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/r\/r\/O4bnx6RjSJyb7nvkVMgw\/09bra-100-fiscal-a4-img03.jpg\" alt=\"Braulio Borges \u2014 Foto: Anna Carolina Negri\/Valor\" width=\"335\" height=\"524\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Braulio Borges \u2014 Photo: Anna Carolina Negri\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"3\" data-block-id=\"61\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Social program efficiency<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"16\" data-block-id=\"62\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Alongside efforts to restrain expenditure growth, economists advocate improving the design and targeting of social programs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"63\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Veloso argues that their success should be measured by how effectively they reduce poverty, rather than by the amount of money spent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"64\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He described <span class=\"highlight\">Bolsa Fam\u00edlia as an internationally recognized anti-poverty program <\/span>that delivers results at a relatively low cost. But he believes its targeting has deteriorated since the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"66\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">One of his main criticisms concerns the introduction of a minimum benefit per family, dating back to the <strong>R$600 payments<\/strong> under &#8220;Aux\u00edlio Brasil&#8221; during the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"67\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Combined with an increase in single-person households receiving benefits, the policy has reduced the extent to which payments vary according to family income and household composition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"16\" data-block-id=\"68\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Barros also sees a need to redesign social programs to eliminate overlapping benefits and combat fraud.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"69\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He estimates that each of these measures could potentially save between<strong> R$25 billion and R$30 billion<\/strong> a year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"70\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Revenue measures<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"71\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Pess\u00f4a cited several possibilities, including taxing currently exempt securities, reducing tax expenditures such as personal income tax deductions for health and education, and taxing dividends distributed by companies operating under special tax regimes, including Simples and the presumed-profit system.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"72\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">While economists agree that fiscal consolidation must focus primarily on slowing spending growth, they acknowledge that revenue measures could also help.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"24\" data-block-id=\"73\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Although the additional revenue would offset the higher spending and prevent the fiscal deficit from worsening, it would do little to contain aggregate demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"74\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He cautioned, however, that raising taxes to finance a <strong>2% real increase<\/strong> in the minimum wage would not be the best approach.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"19\" data-block-id=\"75\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">That is because minimum wage recipients tend to spend virtually all their additional income, sustaining pressure on the economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"8\" data-block-id=\"76\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Inflation and interest rates would therefore remain elevated.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Marta Watanabe\u00a0and\u00a0 Vin\u00edcius Lucena\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Slowing mandatory spending growth, rather than cutting benefits, is key to stabilizing Brazil\u2019s debt and preserving social programs, experts say &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/09\/2026 Rafaela Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 Photo: Washington Alves\/Valor Bringing Brazil\u2019s public finances under control will require slowing the growth of mandatory spending, but economists interviewed by Valor say that does not mean dismantling [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27249],"class_list":["post-100573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-economists-say-fiscal-discipline-can-coexist-with-social-protection"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economists say fiscal discipline can coexist with social protection - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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