{"id":100545,"date":"2026-11-05T23:34:26","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T02:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100545"},"modified":"2026-11-05T23:34:26","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T02:34:26","slug":"trumps-defeat-in-midterms-opens-door-to-moderate-right-in-brazil-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trumps-defeat-in-midterms-opens-door-to-moderate-right-in-brazil-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s defeat in midterms opens door to moderate right in Brazil, experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Political scientists say Bolsonaro family remains a leading political force despite setback for U.S. president<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-11-05T15:00:01.310-03:00\">11\/05\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-top-image\" data-block-type=\"featured-image\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"column medium-centered medium-22 large-20 desktop \" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-featured-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-featured-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/MqvgkH7BaSblhEZ6Iq_uCm57mJo=\/0x0:1241x827\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/f\/N\/e8V9F6SoGZoLqO6x1WAg\/trump-e-flavio-casa-branca.jpg\" alt=\"Donald Trump met Eduardo Bolsonaro, Fl\u00e1vio, and Paulo Figueiredo in May at the White House\" width=\"579\" height=\"386\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-featured-caption\"><em>Donald Trump met Eduardo Bolsonaro, Fl\u00e1vio, and Paulo Figueiredo in May at the White House \u2014 Photo: Reprodu\u00e7\u00e3o\/Truth Social &#8211; Donald Trump<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"69\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The defeat of U.S. President <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong> in the midterm elections is expected to have a negative impact on the Bolsonaro movement and could open the door for more moderate sectors of the right to vie for leadership of the political side. But the result alone is not expected to dislodge the group from its position as the main electoral force on Brazil\u2019s right, experts interviewed by <strong>Valor<\/strong> said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Senator and former presidential candidate <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong> (Liberal Party, PL, Rio de Janeiro), former federal lawmaker <strong>Eduardo Bolsonaro<\/strong>, and other leaders of the group have not immediately commented on the outcome of the midterms.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"62\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fernando Bizzarro<\/strong>, who holds a PhD in political science from Harvard University and is a professor at Boston College, believes the change in the composition of the U.S. Congress will have little impact on relations between the two countries. Congress can also influence decisions through budget approval. According to him, the president retains autonomy over foreign policy, including tariffs and bilateral relations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For Bizzarro, the most significant effect of Trump\u2019s defeat is symbolic. Following the Bolsonaro movement\u2019s loss to <strong>Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/strong> (Workers\u2019 Party, PT), the U.S. result represents another setback for the populist right in the Americas, which had been gaining ground, the professor said. \u201cIt seems the tide is now turning,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Bizzarro cautions that this string of defeats does not necessarily mean a direct loss of electoral strength for the Bolsonaro movement. He points to Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s performance and the presence of the Bolsonaro surname among lawmakers and governors elected in the elections. \u201cBolsonarism is still the main electoral movement within the Brazilian right,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The professor does not, however, rule out an opening for a non-Bolsonaro-aligned right in the next elections. Trump\u2019s weakening could benefit moderate sectors without diminishing the Bolsonaro movement\u2019s electoral strength. \u201cBoth things can be true,\u201d Bizzarro said, summing up his view that the Bolsonaro movement remains strong but could face tougher competition within the right.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Bizzarro believes that openly associating with Trump is likely to become less electorally appealing in Brazil. According to him, U.S. support and the tariffs imposed on Brazil hurt Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s voting intentions during the campaign, leading the senator to mention Trump less frequently in the runoff. Following the defeat, he expects the right to continue looking to the U.S. as a point of reference while avoiding public displays of closeness to the Republican.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"64\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Jorge Chaloub<\/strong>, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), and a researcher of right-wing movements, believes Trump\u2019s defeat has a greater impact in Brazil because of the Bolsonaro movement\u2019s alignment with the American radical right. \u201cIt seems to me that the impact is greater than usual,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Chaloub explains that the rapprochement has gone beyond a strategic relationship to include explicit support for Trumpism and initiatives to pressure Brazil. In his view, the ties affect the Bolsonaro family\u2019s image. \u201cThe silence has to do with that,\u201d he said, referring to the lack of statements from Fl\u00e1vio and Eduardo. He believes that acknowledging their ally\u2019s setback could be interpreted by supporters as a sign of defeat for their political group.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The professor believes Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s and Trump\u2019s losses could lead members of the right to seek alternatives to the Bolsonaro movement. He stresses, however, that former president <strong>Jair Bolsonaro<\/strong> still commands the largest electoral capital within this political camp and was able to transfer votes to his son quickly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Chaloub sees different calculations at play among lawmakers and presidential candidates. For lawmakers, maintaining close ties with the former president may be advantageous; for those running in a national election, the association could be an obstacle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles\" data-block-type=\"raw\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\"content-text__container\">\n<blockquote class=\"content-blockquote theme-border-color-primary-before\"><p>\u201cIt is difficult to win with Bolsonaro, given that he and his son lost the last elections, but it also seems even harder to be competitive without Bolsonaro,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"65\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the political scientist\u2019s view, the fact that important leaders remain outside the country or in prison could create an opening for the Bolsonaro movement to lose its dominance on the right. He does not expect an immediate break with Trump. The most likely scenario, he said, is that Bolsonaro supporters will keep a lower public profile and make \u201cfewer overtures\u201d to the U.S. president.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Paulo Figueiredo<\/strong>, an influencer and ally of the Bolsonaro family in the U.S., was one of the few members of the group to comment on the elections. He celebrated the result in Florida, where he and the Bolsonaros live. \u201cThank God, my free state of Florida remains Republican [&#8230;] At least that,\u201d he wrote on social media.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"68\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The grandson of former president <strong>Jo\u00e3o Figueiredo<\/strong>, the last leader of Brazil\u2019s military dictatorship, Paulo has lived in the U.S. since 2016. He was charged by the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) over alleged involvement in the coup plot and suspected obstruction of justice, for allegedly working in the U.S. to pressure Brazilian authorities. The cases have not yet resulted in a conviction by the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"90\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Fl\u00e1vio is in the U.S., where he fled after the presidential defeat and amid Federal Police (PF) investigations into potential corruption and money laundering. Before the trip, Justice <strong>Alexandre de Moraes <\/strong>had ordered him to surrender his passports to the Federal Police within 24 hours, after the agency cited a risk of flight. Eduardo, meanwhile, has lived in the U.S. since 2025. He was sentenced by the Supreme Court to four years and two months in prison for obstruction of justice, after pressuring the Court through U.S. sanctions last year.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Guilherme Carvalho\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Political scientists say Bolsonaro family remains a leading political force despite setback for U.S. president &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/05\/2026\u00a0 Donald Trump met Eduardo Bolsonaro, Fl\u00e1vio, and Paulo Figueiredo in May at the White House \u2014 Photo: Reprodu\u00e7\u00e3o\/Truth Social &#8211; Donald Trump The defeat of U.S. President Donald Trump in the midterm elections is expected to have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27243],"class_list":["post-100545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-trumps-defeat-in-midterms-opens-door-to-moderate-right-in-brazil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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