{"id":100538,"date":"2026-11-05T23:09:56","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T02:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100538"},"modified":"2026-11-05T23:09:56","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T02:09:56","slug":"central-bank-leaves-next-rate-move-uncertain-after-halting-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-leaves-next-rate-move-uncertain-after-halting-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank leaves next rate move uncertain after halting cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Economists differ on whether decision to hold Selic at 13.75% signals prolonged hold, further easing or potential rate hike amid worsening inflation expectations<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-11-05T05:40:53.685-03:00\">11\/05\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/hWot9utkgis9psP64OCupMv9FBc=\/0x0:1548x998\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/L\/3\/602GUXTHKIkEJpS8Gafw\/foto05fin-101-copom-c1.jpg\" alt=\"Fernando Gon\u00e7alves \u2014 Foto: Gabriel Reis\/Valor\" width=\"421\" height=\"271\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Fernando Gon\u00e7alves \u2014 Photo: Gabriel Reis\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"67\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazil\u2019s Central Bank halted its interest rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday (Nov. 4), <strong>keeping the benchmark Selic rate at 13.75%<\/strong> in response to a recent deterioration in inflation expectations. While the decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) appeared conservative, its accompanying statement offered no guidance on what might come next. Policymakers also stopped short of signaling that they could raise rates if the inflation outlook worsens further.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The decision ended a series of five consecutive 25-basis-point cuts that began in March. The worsening inflation outlook since the presidential election prompted the shift, in line with expectations from most economists surveyed by Valor last week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"41\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Copom said monetary policy had become more challenging, requiring \u201ccomposure and caution\u201d in light of \u201ca substantially restrictive Selic rate, a significant increase in uncertainty surrounding the baseline scenario, higher inflation expectations, and a more pronounced slowdown in domestic economic activity.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Policymakers acknowledged that inflation expectations had drifted further away from the 3% target, including over longer horizons, a development that \u201ccontributes to price formation and increases the cost of disinflation.\u201d At the same time, the committee emphasized the impact of \u201csupply shocks\u201d on its inflation forecast for the relevant monetary policy horizon. That projection rose to 3.5% for the second quarter of 2028, from 3.2% for the first quarter of that year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Mixed signals<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">For <strong>Fernando Gon\u00e7alves<\/strong>, head of economic research at Ita\u00fa Unibanco, those qualifications played down the deterioration in inflation expectations revealed by the latest Focus survey more than was warranted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cI would say [the statement] was less hawkish than we expected, even though it conveyed the message that bringing inflation back to target will be challenging,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Gon\u00e7alves believes Copom sought to offset the worsening inflation forecasts by emphasizing both the influence of supply shocks and its assessment that the Selic remains \u201csubstantially restrictive.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThis is not a statement that sends the message that interest rates will stay high for longer. It leaves things open and focuses on describing the uncertainties, even pointing to conflicting signals,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He cited the committee\u2019s description of economic activity slowing \u201cmore sharply\u201d and a labor market showing \u201csigns of cooling at the margin,\u201d despite remaining resilient.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIn a way, it creates room to look through this substantial deterioration in forecasts, since part of it stems from supply shocks and the Focus survey still points to a declining path for the Selic,\u201d Gon\u00e7alves said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In his view, the statement suggests that the bar for raising interest rates is quite high, while leaving open the possibility of further cuts depending on how economic conditions evolve.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"41\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Cl\u00e1udio Ferraz<\/strong>, chief economist at Galapagos Capital, shares that interpretation, suggesting Copom may have sought to discourage speculation about a potential rate increase. Still, he cautioned that more details would emerge only with the release of the meeting minutes next week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"44\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cTaken as a whole, it was the right decision and a tough statement, but as I said, those references did not go unnoticed,\u201d Ferraz said, referring to the Central Bank\u2019s characterization of the Selic as \u201csubstantially restrictive\u201d and its acknowledgment of slowing economic activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fiscal uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Galapagos expects the Selic to remain unchanged over the coming months. Ferraz believes any discussion of renewed rate cuts will have to wait until the second half of the year, once the reelected government has clarified its fiscal policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"64\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cAs fiscal uncertainties are addressed, that could perhaps have a positive impact on asset prices, potentially halt the process of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and, ideally, eventually lead to their reanchoring. Then, given the slowdown in economic activity, it might be possible to discuss a scenario in which interest rates could be adjusted again. But that is not yet on our radar,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Roberto Padovani,<\/strong> chief economist at Banco BV, described Copom\u2019s statement as \u201cconcise\u201d and \u201ccautious.\u201d He said policymakers acknowledged that monetary policy had become more difficult to manage without offering clues about their next steps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"19\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Padovani also pointed to uncertainty over the incoming administration\u2019s economic policies as a reason for the committee\u2019s restrained language.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe have just come out of an election, and both the Central Bank and analysts are still waiting for information,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Although investors may interpret the statement as relatively \u201cdovish,\u201d signaling an inclination toward lower interest rates, Padovani argued that the Central Bank needs more information before it can take a clearer position.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"50\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cI understand that the Central Bank does not have enough information to issue a much more forceful statement. We need to know what kind of fiscal policy we are going to have. The Central Bank cannot and should not anticipate that. It cannot keep reacting to short-term tensions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"4\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>A more hawkish reading<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"28\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Camila Faria Lima<\/strong>, chief economist at Canvas Capital, offered a different interpretation, describing the statement as slightly more hawkish. In her view, the decision to halt rate cuts was itself a significant signal, particularly given the committee\u2019s acknowledgment of the deteriorating inflation outlook.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Faria Lima said Tuesday\u2019s Focus survey had prompted her to revise her baseline forecast from a further 25-basis-point cut to the decision Copom ultimately made: holding the Selic steady. With inflation expectations worsening, she concluded that the argument for another reduction was no longer tenable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"77\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe Focus survey showed very clearly that inflation expectations were becoming even more unanchored, almost as if a sharper slowdown in economic activity did not matter. The fact is that we are facing greater inflationary pressures and expectations are being called into question even over longer horizons, with everything moving toward 4%. That sent a message that made it very difficult for the Central Bank not to react and simply stick to its flight plan,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Faria Lima therefore sees the communication as more forceful, although she acknowledged that references to a sharper economic slowdown and signs of moderation in the labor market softened its tone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">She also highlighted Copom\u2019s decision to raise its inflation forecast for the relevant monetary policy horizon from <strong>3.2% to 3.5%<\/strong>, even as that horizon shifted from the first to the second quarter of 2028.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"33\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The economist agreed with the committee\u2019s assessment that monetary policy had become more challenging, caught between a worsening inflation outlook and a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"35\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cUltimately, the committee highlighted opposing forces, which is why it describes the scenario as more challenging. It will have to contend with both,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Hamilton Ferrari\u00a0and\u00a0Estev\u00e3o Taiar\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economists differ on whether decision to hold Selic at 13.75% signals prolonged hold, further easing or potential rate hike amid worsening inflation expectations &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/05\/2026\u00a0 Fernando Gon\u00e7alves \u2014 Photo: Gabriel Reis\/Valor Brazil\u2019s Central Bank halted its interest rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday (Nov. 4), keeping the benchmark Selic rate at 13.75% in response to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27240,27239],"class_list":["post-100538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-after-halting-cuts","tag-central-bank-leaves-next-rate-move-uncertain"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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