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FOOD PRICES LEAVE BRAZILIANS FEELING POORER DESPITE ECONOMIC GAINS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Groceries have risen 60.8% since the pandemic, far outpacing overall inflation and helping explain voter unease<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Brazilian grocery bills have risen far faster than overall inflation since the pandemic, helping explain why many consumers remain dissatisfied with the economy despite record employment and income levels. Food-at-home prices climbed 60.8% between April 2020 and August 2026, compared with a 42.7% increase in Brazil\u2019s benchmark consumer price index over the same period.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Most of the increase occurred through mid-2022, amid disruptions and shifts in global supply chains. Between April 2020 and the end of 2022, food-at-home prices rose 42.4%, compared with a 21% increase in overall consumer prices. From January 2023 through August 2026, food-at-home prices rose 12.9%, while overall inflation was 17.9%. Fabio Rom\u00e3o, an economist at 4intelligence, made the calculations.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Workers\u2019 average earnings rose 9.5% in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, between April 2020 and July 2026.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Experts say that this important component of household budgets has become more expensive than overall inflation, one of several factors that help explain Brazilians\u2019 discomfort with the economy, even as macroeconomic indicators paint a more positive picture, with employment and income at record levels.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The negative perception reflects a combination of factors. One is economic growth from a depressed base following the 2015 and 2016 recession; income gains that remain insufficient to provide what many consider a decent standard of living; and job creation concentrated in lower-paying positions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Other factors include a shrinking wage premium for workers who have completed high school or college and rising consumer aspirations in the age of social media.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The cost of living, purchasing power and the resulting economic unease\u2014reflected in opinion polls and studied in academic research\u2014have become prominent issues in this year\u2019s presidential election. President Lula and Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, who will face each other in the runoff, have traded accusations and sought to appeal to voters\u2019 concerns over the economy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ahead of the first round, Lula acknowledged the problem. \u201cI know things still aren\u2019t good enough. But I will make sure inflation remains under control. You will no longer pay the tax on low-cost overseas purchases, the minimum wage will continue to rise above inflation, and we will invest to create quality jobs with better wages,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cGrocery shopping today is much more expensive than it was before the pandemic. There has been a shift to a higher price level: eating has become more expensive, and short-term relief has done little to help. Food costs are part of the explanation for people\u2019s dissatisfaction,\u201d Rom\u00e3o said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The economist\u2019s calculations show that price increases were concentrated in the period immediately following the pandemic, both for overall inflation and food consumed at home. More recently, the war between Iran and the United States and the effects of El Ni\u00f1o have begun to weigh more heavily.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The higher cost of living is a global trend that has also fueled dissatisfaction in other countries, according to Laura Carvalho, an economics professor at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo and researcher at the Getulio Vargas Foundation\u2019s Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV Ibre).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The backdrop includes successive inflation shocks stemming from the pandemic, the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 and, this year, the war in Iran. Surveys around the world point to the cost of living as the main reason for people\u2019s negative perceptions of the economy, Carvalho said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the United States, the term \u201cvibecession\u201d was coined in 2022 to describe a similar disconnect between economic indicators and persistently negative public perceptions of the economy. The term combines \u201cvibe\u201d and \u201crecession.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThere is an additional issue: price increases are perceived as the government\u2019s fault, regardless of where the shock comes from, while income gains are seen as the result of personal merit. That creates an asymmetry that lies at the heart of the economic malaise,\u201d Laura Carvalho said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n An August Quaest presidential voting-intention poll\u2014the most recent edition to include a section devoted exclusively to the economy\u2014found that 33% of respondents believed their income had risen at about the same pace as the cost of living. Another 32% said they had not seen their income increase, while 23% believed the cost of living had risen more than their income.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Another factor in understanding dissatisfaction with the economy, researchers say, is a sense that incomes remain insufficient when measured against what people consider a decent standard of living and the ability to meet basic needs. Gross domestic product has grown in recent years as the economy recovered from the pandemic, but that followed six years of either contraction or weak growth from 2014 through 2019.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThere is this idea that income is insufficient. The question is to what extent income growth is actually translating into better living conditions and higher consumption levels, or whether it is still not enough,\u201d said Vitor Hugo Neia, executive director of the Volkswagen Group Foundation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A recent survey the foundation conducted with the Sustainable Cities Institute and Ipsos-Ipec in 10 Brazilian state capitals found that only 18% of respondents said their personal income had increased over the previous 12 months. Another 45% said it had remained stable, while 31% said it had declined. In addition, 61% took on extra work to supplement their income, and 41% cut back on meat consumption.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cMore than income itself, what ultimately matters is purchasing power. When people say their salary doesn\u2019t last until the end of the month, it isn\u2019t only about prices. The income gains we\u2019ve seen still haven\u2019t brought a large share of Brazilians to what they consider a decent standard of living,\u201d Carvalho said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Among employed workers in Brazil, 32.2% earn no more than one minimum wage a month, according to second-quarter data from Brazil\u2019s statistics agency IBGE. The share earning up to two minimum wages is nearly 70%, at 69.1%. That means only 30.9% of employed Brazilians earn more than R$3,242 a month.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Another factor cited by experts to explain the disconnect between public sentiment and Brazil\u2019s economic indicators is a shift in expectations, influenced in part by social media.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThere has been an important change over the past 20 years in how people measure quality of life. In the past, people wanted a stable job and a family structured in a certain way, but that has changed,\u201d said Igor Pantoja, institutional relations coordinator at the Sustainable Cities Institute.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cToday, a good quality of life is closely associated with consumption. There really is a mismatch between what the political system and institutions seek to provide and what people demand, often based on what they see on the internet and social media,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Carvalho also sees social media as amplifying consumer aspirations, although she considers its influence secondary to other explanations for the gap between perceptions and economic indicators.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cPeople\u2019s aspirations aren\u2019t the same as they were in the 2000s. It\u2019s no longer about buying a refrigerator or flying on a plane for the first time. It is also natural that as a society develops, people begin to demand new things. And those demands are amplified by social media, where everyone shares their lives,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The survey by the Volkswagen Group Foundation, Sustainable Cities Institute and Ipsos-Ipec also provides a longer-term view of how people perceive changes in living standards, with a focus on social mobility.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Overall, 73% of respondents in the 10 state capitals said they had more education than their parents. Only 43%, however, said their income was higher than their parents\u2019, while 51% believed they had better housing conditions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cPeople recognize that they are more educated than their parents. But that educational mobility isn\u2019t reflected to the same degree in income and housing mobility. It\u2019s not that education isn\u2019t important, but there is a sense that qualifications alone are not enough,\u201d Neia said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n ____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/06\/2026<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n JUSTICES WAVER BETWEEN PESSIMISM AND CAUTION ON IMPEACHMENT RISK<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n New Senate lineup puts members of the court on alert as Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and his allies vow to remove justices<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Supreme Court justices consulted by Valor are divided over whether the new Senate lineup elected in the first round will immediately translate into impeachment proceedings against members of the court. Views range from pessimism to the assessment that it is too early to say justices would lose their seats before a Senate seen as more hostile to the court.The PL will have 28 senators next year: 19 elected on Sunday (4), joining the nine already serving in the upper house. Lawmakers from other parties also support impeachment. A survey by O Globo indicates there will be at least 49 of the 54 votes needed next year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One justice considers it certain that impeachment requests will advance in 2027 if presidential candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) is elected. \u201cOf course it will pass. With Fl\u00e1vio in the presidency, there will be at least 60 votes,\u201d the justice said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The most pessimistic justices point to at least three members of the court who could come under Senate scrutiny as early as next year: Alexandre de Moraes, Dias Toffoli, and Fl\u00e1vio Dino. Justices and people close to them have even drawn up estimates. One, taking the deadlines for the defense into account, is that an impeachment could occur by mid-June.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Most justices, however, urge caution. They consider, for example, that if President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (Workers\u2019 Party, PT) is reelected, initiatives against the Supreme Court could be curbed.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n There is also an expectation that some PL lawmakers would be less radical and could oppose impeachment requests. Finally, one justice said he does not see it as so obvious that the proposals would advance in the Senate. He said some members of the centrist bloc have an interest in keeping on the court justices to whom they have greater access.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Senate shifts right<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Bolsonarist wave that set the tone of the election campaign boosted opposition candidates\u2019 victories, producing a predominantly right-wing Senate and a shrinking centrist bloc.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The result affects relations among the branches of government, particularly the Supreme Court, which is facing a crisis stemming from the Master case. The scandal has shaken the court\u2019s credibility and was an issue in Senate campaigns.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n With 28 senators, the PL will have the largest caucus starting next year, about three times the size of the PT\u2019s, with nine, and the Brazilian Democratic Movement\u2019s (MDB), with eight. The shrinking of the Centr\u00e3o bloc was evident in the Progressive Party (PP) and Republicans, each reduced to six members, and in the Social Democracy Party (PSD) and Brazil Union, with five lawmakers each.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 09\/30\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n PIX TRANSACTIONS FALL 10% AFTER BAN ON BETTING SITES<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Part of financial sector applauds measure against online gambling amid concerns over legal uncertainty<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The number of Pix transactions fell about 10% over the past three days, after the government published a presidential decree (MP) late Friday afternoon (25) banning online sports betting (known in Brazil as \u201cbets\u201d). For part of the banking industry, the ban is viewed favorably, since there are in fact many indicators that betting sites were eroding household budgets, especially those of low-income families, and thus affecting delinquency. Still, there is criticism over the legal uncertainty generated by the measure.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On Saturday (26), the number of Pix transactions (not the financial volume) was 229,600, down 11% from the average of the previous four Saturdays, according to Central Bank data. On Sunday, transactions totaled 165,900, down 12.0% on the same basis of comparison. And on Monday (28), they reached 213,000, a decline of 7.4%. Over the three days combined, the drop is 10.0%, also compared with the average for the same period in the previous four weeks.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cObviously it\u2019s not possible to attribute this drop in Pix only to the ban on bets, but it gives a sense of the size of the problem. It has become a public health issue,\u201d says an industry leader. \u201cI think it was the right decision by the government. I don\u2019t like betting sites in any sense,\u201d adds a banker at a midsize institution.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As Valor reported Tuesday (29), analysts also assess that the ban on bets could be positive for banks. Citi notes that more than 40 million Brazilians have already put money into these bets, representing about R$20 billion in gross revenue in the first half of this year. \u201cThe measure could leave higher disposable income for households, which would translate into better asset quality for banks, especially in the low-income segment,\u201d says a banking source.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Another source in the sector also acknowledges that the measure could have a slightly positive effect for banks by helping ease households\u2019 disposable income. Still, the source criticizes how the government made the decision, creating legal uncertainty and also affecting the fiscal situation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cI think betting sites do a lot of harm to the local economy and to commerce, and they shouldn\u2019t have been regulated the way they were, but overturning by MP a law and legal structure that was debated for months in Congress is complicated.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A source in the fintech segment, meanwhile, says that to a certain extent the ban was already expected. \u201cThe negative externalities far outweigh the positive ones,\u201d he says, speaking about the effects on society at large. In any case, he notes that some fintechs operate exclusively in this sector and others, though not exclusive, have significant revenue from bets, whether in handling betting flows or in international remittances. \u201cTherefore, an abrupt change will have economic impacts on this subsegment.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/19\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n CONFLICTING FILINGS RAISE QUESTIONS OVER OWNERSHIP OF BRAZILIAN LENDER<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Central Bank approved Francine Kallas as Pincred\u2019s controlling shareholder, while antitrust regulator had cleared a deal identifying her brother Lucas as the buyer<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Brazil\u2019s Central Bank authorized in August businesswoman Francine Kallas to take control of Pintos S.A. (Pincred), a finance company based in the northeastern state of Piau\u00ed. But a year and a half earlier, the country\u2019s antitrust regulator had cleared the acquisition of the same lender by her brother, Lucas Kallas.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A review by Valor of filings submitted to the Central Bank and the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade)\u2013along with corporate records from the network of companies involved in the transaction\u2013raises questions about who actually controls Pintos.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The case has drawn attention because Lucas Kallas, a businessman associated with Cedro Minera\u00e7\u00e3o, has maintained business ties with former banker Daniel Vorcaro, of Banco Master, and has been the subject of criminal investigations and proceedings, although he has not been convicted of any crime.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Conflicting ownership filings<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On November 16, 2024, lawyers representing the Kallas family filed a merger notification with Cade stating that Lucas indirectly controlled Forest Holding Financeira, the company that acquired Pintos S.A. Cr\u00e9dito, Financiamento e Investimentos.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe buyer is a non-operating holding company wholly owned by Lucas Kallas through Monte L\u00edbano Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.,\u201d states both the petition signed by the family\u2019s lawyers and the accompanying merger notification form.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ten days later, however, a separate application was filed with the Central Bank seeking approval to transfer ultimate control of Pintos to Francine Prado Kallas, Lucas\u2019s sister, according to a notice published by the monetary authority.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Central Bank reviews acquisitions, mergers and the establishment of financial institutions primarily from a financial stability perspective. Its assessments include whether prospective owners meet integrity and reputation requirements, have the financial resources to sustain the business and can demonstrate the lawful origin of their funds.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Changes to the companies\u2019 ownership structures came only after the application was submitted to the Central Bank.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On December 31, 2024, Francine injected R$85 million into Monte L\u00edbano Participa\u00e7\u00f5es, which owns Forest Holding Financeira. Forest was the company that actually acquired an 80% stake in Pintos. The remaining 20% of Forest was held by businessman Pedro Mesquita, of Exa Capital.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Despite the corporate restructuring, Cade approved the acquisition without restrictions on January 6, 2025. The transaction was cleared as a purchase by the Kallas Group, which the documents submitted by the family\u2019s lawyers identified as being controlled by Lucas.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Regulatory scrutiny<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From a practical standpoint, whether Cade approved the acquisition by a group led by Lucas or by his sister makes little difference. Pintos is a small company, and the transaction has virtually no impact on competition.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n For the Central Bank, however, establishing who actually owns Pincred is essential to determining whether the buyer meets regulatory requirements, including those concerning integrity and reputation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n What remains unclear is whether the monetary authority\u2019s review covered only Francine or also her brother.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Valor has been seeking comment from the Central Bank since August 26 but did not receive a response.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On August 18, Valor reported the Central Bank\u2019s approval of the acquisition, noting that Lucas was among those indicted by Brazil\u2019s Federal Police in Operation Parcours, an investigation into a suspected illegal iron ore extraction scheme in Serra do Curral, in the Belo Horizonte metropolitan a<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Francine\u2019s name also appears in the Parcours investigation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Federal Police documents describe an email exchange in which a Cedro executive asked an asset manager to register her email address with a fund managed by Reag. The documents reportedly listed Francine\u2019s declared assets at R$204 million.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Business ties to Banco Master<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As previously reported by Valor, Lucas announced last month that he was stepping down as chairman of Cedro Participa\u00e7\u00f5es, a holding company he founded with operations in mining, agribusiness, construction and transportation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kallas and Vorcaro have been involved in several business ventures together.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n WhatsApp conversations involving the former banker show that the two traveled to Venezuela in October 2023 to explore opportunities in the oil industry.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Both were also investors in biotechnology company Biomm. In addition, the Kallas group was hired to build hospitals for Oncocl\u00ednicas, in which Vorcaro held a stake.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Lucas also obtained a R$254.8 million loan from Banco Master in April 2024, which was subsequently assigned to Banco Voiter.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The transaction appears on a list of loans submitted by Banco Master\u2019s liquidator in court proceedings seeking to recover outstanding lending. The documents do not establish whether the debt was repaid.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n WhatsApp exchanges between Vorcaro and Paulo Henrique Costa, the former CEO of state-controlled lender BRB, show that Master\u2019s owner attempted to transfer the loans to BRB.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In one message, Costa said the proposal had been blocked by BRB\u2019s compliance department because of the criminal investigations involving Lucas.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Even if the acquisition of Pintos had been submitted to the Central Bank under Lucas\u2019s name, however, it is uncertain whether the regulator would have had the authority to block the transaction.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Guidance from the Central Bank\u2019s Office of the General Counsel states that a person can be deemed unfit on integrity grounds only after a judicial conviction. Neither Lucas nor his sister has been convicted.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The press office representing Lucas and Francine said both are shareholders and members of the controlling shareholder group of Cedro Participa\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe acquisition of control of Pintos S.A. Cr\u00e9dito, Financiamento e Investimento (Pincred) was conducted entirely with the advice of Pinheiro Neto Advogados, which prepared the applications and supporting explanations based on the same documents submitted to the Central Bank and Cade, both of which approved the transaction without reservations,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The representatives said the Central Bank received more complete and detailed information about the Cedro Group\u2019s control structure, as the authority responsible for reviewing and approving transfers of control involving financial institutions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cAs for the merger notification submitted to Cade, specific terminology relevant to competition matters was used to describe the acquiring economic group, with all supporting documentation correctly setting out the corporate structure,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Regarding Operation Parcours, Lucas\u2019s defense team said it \u201ctrusts that his innocence will be recognized.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe indictment is based on old facts that were already examined in a previous investigation and dismissed by the courts,\u201d the lawyers said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe operation was based on events that occurred approximately six years after the end of any relationship between Lucas and the companies investigated in that case.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The press office also said the Federal Police report \u201cmentions funds managed by Reag only as a hypothesis that might eventually warrant further investigation.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cAfter being formally consulted by the defense, the Federal Police stated that there is no ongoing investigation into the matter, indicating that the hypotheses were not supported by factual evidence,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Regarding the Banco Master loan, the representatives said it was obtained through a regular transaction \u201cwith an institution whose securities were, at the time, distributed by participants throughout the financial system.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n They also maintained that the loan had been repaid, that the funds were available and that the bank\u2019s liquidator had been notified.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cade said through its press office that the parties had not formally notified the regulator of any corporate restructuring.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe competitive effects of the transaction would not change if the acquiring economic group remained the same,\u201d the agency said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cade added that it does not comment on proceedings classified as confidential.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n <\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n 10\/26\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n GLOBOPLAY REVAMPS SUBSCRIPTION PLANS, EXPANDS CONTENT ACCESS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n changes bring more live channels and sports coverage to ad-supported subscribers<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Globoplay, Brazil\u2019s leading streaming platform, owned by Globo, is rolling out a revamped subscription offering on Monday (Oct. 26), aimed at improving the user experience while creating new opportunities for advertisers.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re giving more people access to a broader range of content that was previously restricted to premium subscribers,\u201d said J\u00falia Rueff, Globo\u2019s executive director of digital platforms.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Globoplay offers three subscription tiers: an ad-supported standard plan, premium and premium+premiere.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Before the changes, the standard plan included Globoplay original productions, such as exclusive series and movies; live and on-demand TV Globo programming; current and classic Brazilian soap operas; short-form Brazilian, Turkish and Mexican dramas; international movies and series; the free channels ge.tv and Futura; and selected Globo FAST channels, which cater to niche audiences, such as Receitas TV and Malha\u00e7\u00e3o TV.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Starting Monday, the ad-supported tier will expand to include the content catalog available to premium subscribers, while retaining all its existing programming.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n More than 20 live channels will be added to the standard plan, including sportv, Combate, Multishow, GNT, Globoplay Novelas and GloboNews. Subscribers will also gain access to more than 2,500 live sporting events and games each year broadcast on sportv channels.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n New plan features<\/p>\n <\/p>\n With the expanded catalog, the main distinction between the ad-supported and premium plans will shift from content availability to the viewing experience.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The tiers will differ in features such as advertising on on-demand videos, the number of simultaneous streams, picture quality and the ability to download content for offline viewing.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The ad-supported plan allows two simultaneous streams, compared with five for premium and premium+premiere subscribers. The two higher-priced tiers also allow users to download up to 25 titles to their libraries and offer 4K video quality.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThis is a subscriber-focused reorganization that improves the overall value proposition for users while creating opportunities for advertisers,\u201d Rueff said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Advertisers will gain access to new ad formats, including \u201cwelcome ads,\u201d which allow advertisements to appear on Globoplay\u2019s profile selection screen.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cEverything we do to improve the user experience also benefits advertisers because it means more people watching, greater engagement and more impact for brands,\u201d Rueff said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Profitability and growth<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Rueff said Globoplay, which reached breakeven in 2025, is expected to turn a profit this year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve improved Globoplay\u2019s profitability while also growing our subscriber base and content consumption.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From January through August 2026, Globoplay\u2019s subscriber base grew 31% compared with the same period last year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Globo does not disclose the platform\u2019s total number of subscribers but says 30 million people access Globoplay every month.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n 10\/26\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n BOLSONARO ALLIES LEAD IN BRAZIL\u2019S STATE ELECTIONS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Sixteen elected governors backed Bolsonaro\u2019s movement, but experts expect shifting alliances to preserve governability<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Governors were elected in runoff races in five states\u2014Acre, Amazonas, Tocantins, Esp\u00edrito Santo, and Rio Grande do Norte\u2014as well as the Federal District on Sunday (Oct. 25). Two are aligned with President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (Workers\u2019 Party, PT), who won reelection with 51.78% of the vote, while four were allies of Sen. Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL). Including the first round, 16 of the governors elected nationwide had declared support for Bolsonaro\u2019s political movement, seven backed Lula, and four remained neutral during the campaign.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The PL elected the largest number of governors, with six, followed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), with five. The PT, Republicans, and Progressive Party (PP) each won four governorships. These five parties will control the state governments of 23 of Brazil\u2019s 26 states and the Federal District. Overall, Sunday\u2019s results largely confirmed the forecasts in election polls published on the eve of the vote.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Two candidates overturned their first-round deficits. In Tocantins, federal deputy Vicentinho J\u00fanior (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB) defeated Professora Dorinha (Brazil Union, Uni\u00e3o Brasil), who had Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s backing. Vicentinho finished second in the first round with 43.94% of valid votes, compared with Dorinha\u2019s 45.52%. Vicentinho is the son of former Sen. Vicentinho Alves.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In Rio Grande do Norte, governor-elect Cadu de Lula (PT) also overcame his initial disadvantage, winning 50.77% of valid votes to defeat Alysson (Brazil Union), who had remained neutral in the presidential race. Cadu Xavier, who used the name Cadu de Lula on the ballot, served as finance secretary under Gov. F\u00e1tima Bezerra (PT), whom he will succeed.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In Esp\u00edrito Santo, former Vit\u00f3ria Mayor Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicans) was elected governor, defeating Ricardo Ferra\u00e7o (Brazilian Democratic Movement, MDB) with 52.01% of the vote. Pazolini, who received Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s endorsement, stepped down as mayor of the state capital this year to run for governor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the Federal District, Gov. Celina Le\u00e3o (PP), backed by Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, won reelection by defeating Leandro Grass (PT). With 98% of ballots counted, she had 57.21% of valid votes, compared with 42.79% for her opponent. She narrowly missed winning outright in the first round, falling short by just 1,089 votes.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In Amazonas, Sen. Omar Aziz (PSD), who had Lula\u2019s backing, defeated Maria do Carmo (PL). With all polling stations reporting, Aziz received 61.42% of the vote, against 38.58% for his opponent. At 68, Aziz returns to lead the Amazonas state government after serving as governor from 2010 to 2014.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n According to political scientists, despite many governors not being aligned with Lula, neither side is expected to face major governability problems, nor is the balance of power in Congress likely to be affected. One example is Republicans, who elected governors in two of Brazil\u2019s largest electoral districts: Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais and Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas in S\u00e3o Paulo. Yet in the Chamber of Deputies, Speaker Hugo Motta continues to support the governing coalition, and the Republicans also holds cabinet posts.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Experts expect new political coalitions and alliances to emerge, as is typical of Brazil\u2019s federal system. Andr\u00e9 Borges, a professor at the University of Bras\u00edlia (UnB), said that although the PL elected the most governors and has a sizable presence in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, this does not give the party a free hand at either the state or federal level.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe PL was the big winner in the state elections, but other right-wing parties also performed well, such as Republicans. Power is not concentrated in a single party,\u201d Borges said. Politicians will still need to negotiate and build alliances, he added. He cited the PL\u2019s attempt, after the first round, to negotiate for the speakership of the Chamber of Deputies. \u201cHugo Motta has put together a coalition backed by 10 parties. Everything points to his reelection. That shows a tactical mistake on their part [the PL\u2019s], because the election was barely over when they were already telling allies they wanted the leadership of both the Chamber and the Senate. That\u2019s not how it works,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Experts expect Lula to maintain an institutional relationship with political opponents, as he did with S\u00e3o Paulo Gov. Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas during his current term. Despite their political differences, the two worked together on the Santos-Guaruj\u00e1 Tunnel, Brazil\u2019s first immersed-tube tunnel, through a public-private partnership (PPP). \u201cThere was no boycott or anything of the sort; the money was transferred,\u201d said Claudio Couto, a professor at Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Getulio Vargas (FGV).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Couto expects that pattern to continue. \u201cIf we look at Lula\u2019s third term, with the far right already in power in some states, he has sought to maintain institutional relations. We saw that in his dealings with Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas and even [Ronaldo] Caiado, who took a very hard line on public security. There were disagreements, but no major clashes. I believe we will see the same pattern again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Political scientists note that campaign endorsements can be fragile and may shift after an election. During former President Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s administration, for example, Bolsonaro\u2014who is in prison after being convicted in a coup plot\u2014broke with then-S\u00e3o Paulo Gov. Jo\u00e3o Doria (PSDB) and then-Rio de Janeiro Gov. Wilson Witzel (Social Christian Party, PSC). In addition, governors, particularly those of Brazil\u2019s largest states, are \u201cnatural potential presidential candidates,\u201d Borges noted, creating another incentive for political rifts.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Experts acknowledge, however, that political alignment can help during campaigns and may influence the ability to attract investment once a governor takes office. \u201cAlignment does have an effect, but less so today than in the past because social policies have become much more decentralized. Thirty years ago, before the creation of Fundef and Fundeb, the states played an intermediary role. Today, many programs transfer funds directly to municipalities based on more universal criteria, reducing the room for political bargaining,\u201d Borges said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Borges said two state-level candidates stood out: Pernambuco Gov. Raquel Lyra, who won reelection despite remaining neutral in the national campaign and defeating Jo\u00e3o Campos (Brazilian Socialist Party, PSB), the former mayor of Recife who had Lula\u2019s support; and Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans), who won the Minas Gerais governorship in the first round with 55.40% of the vote.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/26\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n SUPREME COURT TO FACE MORE HOSTILE SENATE<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Justices Kassio Nunes Marques and Andr\u00e9 Mendon\u00e7a may be more isolated than ever<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019s (Workers\u2019 Party, PT) reelection gives the majority wing of the Supreme Court some breathing room, according to justices interviewed by Valor. The assessment is that, even though the court will have to deal with a more hostile Senate starting next year, there is room to hold back impeachment proceedings. The question is what will happen to Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The scourge of Bolsonarism for his role in the \u201cfake news\u201d and coup plot investigations, he lost credibility after his alleged involvement in the Banco Master case came to light.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The assessment is that justices Kassio Nunes Marques and Andr\u00e9 Mendon\u00e7a may be more isolated than ever. The pair of Jair Bolsonaro appointees presided over the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in this year\u2019s elections and, according to justices, burned through all their chips betting on a Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) victory. The latest instance came on Sunday, over Nunes Marques\u2019s stance on the request to extend voting hours.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n With no position from the Electoral Court, Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin decided to extend voting from 5:00 pm to 7:00 pm, which could give the defeated group an opening, once again, to turn against the court and challenge the election result. A justice consulted by Valor considers it unlikely that the vote will be annulled, given Lula\u2019s margin of more than 4 million votes.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In addition, the assessment is that Nunes Marques and Mendon\u00e7a acted to expose their Supreme Court colleagues by deepening the internal crisis caused by Master, and issued rulings to hurt Lula in the final stretch of the campaign. Contacted, both declined to comment.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Examples, they say, include Mendon\u00e7a\u2019s release of the Federal Police (PF) report mentioning messages from former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Master, sent to a phone said to belong to Moraes. The issue was heavily exploited in the first round, and the damage fell on Lula. In the final phase, there were moves against the \u201cLula\u2019s Army\u201d channel, created by Federal Deputy Andr\u00e9 Janones (Sustainability Network, REDE, Minas Gerais), and the removal from the docket of trials that could have hurt Fl\u00e1vio at the TSE.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThey picked a fight with a lot of people because they wanted to become the owners of the Supreme Court. Obviously there will be consequences,\u201d said a Supreme Court member on condition of anonymity. In his view, it is still hard to make many predictions about the next chapters given the divided country that emerged from the ballot boxes. There are, however, two forecasts: that the court does not intend, at this time, to abandon Moraes, and that if impeachment moves forward, there will be efforts to see that Nunes Marques, who is also under strong suspicion of involvement in the Master case, becomes the target of a similar proceeding.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Justices and insiders also believe the court may close ranks, as it has at other times when it felt under attack: in the 2022 elections, after January 8, 2023, in the coup plot trial, and amid U.S. threats against Supreme Court members. Chief Justice Edson Fachin, who does not want his tenure marked by the impeachment of colleagues, may also adopt a more defensive posture toward the court.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n With the outcome of the presidential race, Lula should finally be able to move forward on filling the vacancy open since October 2025, when Lu\u00eds Roberto Barroso retired early. Justices Luiz Fux, C\u00e1rmen L\u00facia, and Gilmar Mendes will also retire during the PT leader\u2019s term. That means the government will have at least four appointments in the coming years, a number that could grow if impeachment proceedings advance in the Senate, which would be unprecedented.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n If he stays on the court, Moraes will take over as chief justice in September next year. Impeachment could bring forward the tenure of Nunes Marques, Moraes\u2019s successor, with Mendon\u00e7a as vice president. Justices do not yet speak very openly about the matter, but there is chatter that if Moraes leaves and Nunes Marques stays, they could pick a different chief justice in a secret vote. Normally the choice is symbolic and follows a preset order, which has never been broken to date.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Supreme Court also has an ace against impeachment. At the end of last year, Mendes issued an injunction raising the quorum needed to remove justices and giving the prosecutor general exclusive authority to file removal requests against members of the court. The justice later revised the latter requirement, but it could be reinstated if the court feels threatened.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On another front, Nunes Marques is the rapporteur at the Supreme Court on a request to annul the conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years and three months for leading a coup attempt. Justices believe the outcome weakens a possible favorable preliminary ruling for Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The justice has said he would take the case to the full court after the runoff. Lula\u2019s reelection could undercut that intention, given how hard it would be for the request to prosper at the Supreme Court. Besides Moraes, justices Zanin, Fl\u00e1vio Dino, and L\u00facia, who voted to convict Bolsonaro, while Fachin and Mendes oppose reviewing the conviction, according to justices and aides consulted.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n There are no clear indications of what will become of Mendon\u00e7a\u2019s situation. The justice is the rapporteur of two of the court\u2019s most high-profile cases: the Banco Master investigation and the inquiry into fraud involving association fees deducted from retirees\u2019 and pensioners\u2019 benefits at the National Social Security Institute (INSS). He is therefore expected to retain power on the court, despite the circumstances and possible isolation.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/27\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n BOLSONARO CLAN SHIFTS FOCUS TO CONGRESS<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Without the presidency, political family\u2019s four lawmakers face challenge of maintaining its leadership of the right<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s defeat in the presidential race, the family of former president Jair Bolsonaro emerged from the election stronger in Congress, with four members of the political clan elected to office. While the results should secure the Bolsonaros a foothold in the legislative arena, they also pose a challenge: maintaining their dominance on the right after losing two consecutive presidential elections to Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva. On Monday (26), the day after the election, Fl\u00e1vio said he intended to \u201corganize the opposition\u201d to the government in the coming period. He will leave the Senate in January, ending a 24-year run in elected office.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Analysts say Bolsonarism is undergoing a leadership reshuffle amid uncertainty over the former president\u2019s situation. Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest following his conviction for attempting a coup. The relationships among elected family members and rivalries within the broader right-wing camp will also be decisive for the movement\u2019s future, experts told Valor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Fl\u00e1vio received 48.21% of valid votes in the runoff, trailing reelected President Lula by 3.58 percentage points. On the eve of the vote, a poll released by Quaest found that 45% of voters said they feared the Bolsonaro family\u2019s return to power more than Lula remaining in office. Meanwhile, 42% said they were more concerned about the PT leader\u2019s reelection than a return of Bolsonarism. Another 4% feared both scenarios, 4% feared neither, and 5% did not know how to answer.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the first round, the family secured two Senate seats, with terms running through 2034, and two seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The lawmakers represent the Federal District, Santa Catarina, and S\u00e3o Paulo, and all belong to the Liberal Party (PL).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, becoming the most-voted senator in the capital\u2019s history, with nearly 940,000 votes (29%), in her first-ever run for elected office. She also became the first former first lady in Brazil to win an elected mandate.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The other Senate seat secured under Jair\u2019s plan to expand right-wing representation in the chamber\u2014and advance initiatives such as impeachment petitions against Federal Supreme Court justices\u2014went to Carlos, the former president\u2019s second son, who was elected senator for Santa Catarina. Following Jair\u2019s instructions, Carlos transferred his electoral domicile from Rio de Janeiro, where he had served as a city councilor since 2001, to the southern state, one of the region\u2019s strongholds of Bolsonarism.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The strategy had previously been used with the youngest son, Jair Renan, who left the Federal District, where he lived, to make his electoral debut in 2024. That year, he was elected to the city council in Balne\u00e1rio Cambori\u00fa, Santa Catarina. Running under the ballot name \u201cJair Bolsonaro,\u201d he was elected to the Chamber of Deputies with the fourth-highest vote total in Santa Catarina, receiving 131,000 votes.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One of his colleagues in the lower house will be his uncle Renato, who was elected in S\u00e3o Paulo. Jair\u2019s younger brother first won a seat on the Praia Grande city council in 1996 but subsequently suffered a series of defeats. His most recent loss came in 2024, when he ran for mayor of Registro, S\u00e3o Paulo state. This year, running with an easily remembered ballot number consisting of four consecutive twos and promoted by his party as a potential vote-getter for other candidates, he received the sixth-highest number of votes for a federal deputy among S\u00e3o Paulo voters, with 379,000.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Renato took over the ballot number previously used by his nephew Eduardo, who helped pioneer Jair\u2019s political expansion beyond his electoral stronghold of Rio de Janeiro. Eduardo first ran for the Chamber of Deputies in S\u00e3o Paulo in 2014 and was reelected in 2018, when he received 1.8 million votes, the highest total ever recorded by a federal representative in Brazil at the time, a record that was later surpassed. He won reelection again in 2022. Eduardo now lives in the U.S. and lost his seat after being removed from office for excessive absenteeism.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe were all elected on the strength of Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s name and legacy,\u201d Renato told Valor last week while campaigning for Fl\u00e1vio in cities across the interior of S\u00e3o Paulo state. The incoming representative said he expected Jair to act as \u201ca senior adviser\u201d to the family\u2019s congressional bloc. He also spoke of \u201calignment\u201d and \u201cunity\u201d but did not explain how they would work together.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cCarlos has his own way of thinking, Michelle has another, and Renan is very young. I will be available to support my brother, but I also have my own opinions and my own way of seeing the world,\u201d Renato said. The transfer of Jair\u2019s political capital to his relatives can be seen as evidence of the former president\u2019s continued influence, even while under arrest and without access to social media.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cToday, the movement\u2019s identity and the family\u2019s unity depend on its leader, Jair Bolsonaro. [However,] based on everything we know so far, there is a strong chance the family will split. They barely managed to campaign together,\u201d said political scientist Maria Herm\u00ednia Tavares de Almeida, professor emerita at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo (USP).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One sign of internal tensions within the clan was Michelle\u2019s limited involvement in Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s campaign. Four months before the election, the stepmother and stepson had a falling-out that damaged the senator\u2019s candidacy. Weeks later, they publicly announced a reconciliation, but the former first lady remained largely absent from campaign events alongside the presidential candidate.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Robson Carvalho, who holds a doctorate in political science from the University of Bras\u00edlia (UnB) and researches political dynasties in Brazil, said Michelle has an opportunity to establish herself through her Senate office, particularly by engaging with evangelical voters and women. However, he noted that her stepsons are also seeking to carve out political space.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cMichelle could emerge as a bulwark. Some say she could even distance herself from the family, but I still see power as closely tied to the family\u2019s political core, despite the leadership she has among evangelicals, which represents a different form of political capital,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Despite the family\u2019s presence in Congress, Carvalho noted that losing the presidency represents a setback for the Bolsonarist project. \u201cThe group\u2019s family-based political power is diminished because it will once again lack the power of the presidency. The group will turn its attention to Parliament, but it will not control the heart of the Executive branch,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One distinctive feature of this election for the Bolsonaro family is that it will encourage its members to operate across different parts of the country, according to the political scientist. \u201cThe Bolsonaro family goes beyond the conventional pattern of political dynasties because we see kinship operating upward, downward and horizontally,\u201d Carvalho said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n He authored a study on \u201cthe dimensions of family-based political capital in the Senate and the harm it causes to democratic representation.\u201d According to him, the combination of family ties and positions of decision-making power in Brazil is associated with obstacles to political renewal and risks stemming from the concentration of power.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In Almeida\u2019s view, Bolsonarism\u2014which she describes as the local expression of \u201cfar-right populism\u201d\u2014\u201cis much bigger than the family. It is a political and social movement with considerable electoral appeal.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n That strength has enabled the election of a number of \u201cyoung male and female representatives\u201d who secured substantial vote totals by campaigning on Bolsonarist platforms, said the political scientist. \u201cThese are emerging leaders who do not have the Bolsonaro surname,\u201d the professor said, commenting on the rise of Bolsonarist figures outside the family.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/27\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n BUSINESS GROUPS CALLS FOR FISCAL ADJUSTMENT AND POLICY CONTINUITY<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Industry associations back lower interest rates and preservation of sectoral policies, including concession auctions and special regime for critical minerals<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Brazilian businesses wants the new government of Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (Workers\u2019 Party, PT), reelected on Sunday (25), to present a fiscal adjustment plan that allows for lower interest rates for businesses. At the same time, trade associations backed the continuation of sectoral policies they consider important, such as the national critical minerals policy, the infrastructure concessions agenda, the zero tax rate on the basic food basket, and the end of online betting.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe investment rate is between 18% and 20% today. That is very high. We need an investment rate that is practically half of that, in the single digits. And the working capital rate would need to be cut by 40% to 50%,\u201d said Jos\u00e9 Velloso, president of Abimaq, which represents machinery and equipment manufacturers in Brazil.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n To get there, he argues that Lula must urgently address the fiscal issue by putting public accounts in order, with measures such as administrative reform and an overhaul of Social Security, as well as a rework of the public budget that tackles lawmakers\u2019 earmarked amendments.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The path the government will take on fiscal policy is in question. Decoupling health spending from tax revenue, for example, which many economists see as one of the alternatives, is not expected to be implemented in Lula\u2019s fourth term.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cDuring his campaign, President Lula always defended the public health system, SUS, emphatically. But at the same time, fiscal adjustment is necessary. So raising or cutting the health budget is very complicated. I believe it will be maintained, but the challenge is finding other means,\u201d said Antonio Britto, executive director of the hospital association Anahp, a former governor of Rio Grande do Sul, and a former Social Security minister.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Velloso said the negative market reaction on Monday (26) after the election was expected, since polls had indicated a win by Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL), who was backed by the financial sector, as more likely.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Venilton Tadini, chief executive of Abdib (the Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries), believes the tension in financial markets should settle quickly. \u201cThis first symptom is normal, because the banks\u2019 structures are built for this. They set up bets and futures market operations, but it adjusts very quickly, and that doesn\u2019t worry us,\u201d he said, adding that he expects the president-elect\u2019s government to signal adjustments and that maintaining this level of friction with industry and financial markets is untenable.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n He said this turbulence should not, for example, affect the various infrastructure auctions scheduled for the end of this year. \u201cThose who will take part are already settled, unless the projects don\u2019t have a well-structured risk-return profile,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tadini expects the infrastructure auction agenda to proceed as normal. \u201cWe believe in the continuity of the program, which is what has happened since 2017. The ideological baggage about transferring operations to the private sector is gone.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (Absolar) said in a statement that the main short-term test of the new cycle will be the first two capacity reserve auctions for contracting battery systems, scheduled for Dec. 2 and 4. \u201cThe association stresses the importance of defining the funding conditions for the auctions and argues that they should launch a recurring, annual agenda for contracting storage,\u201d it said. Absolar said institutional dialogue and consensus-building will be needed in the coming years.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the critical minerals sector, Lula\u2019s reelection also points to the maintenance of the National Critical and Strategic Minerals Policy (PNMCE), along the lines in which it had already been under discussion.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The policy, which created a council linked to the Presidency to review corporate transactions considered sensitive to national sovereignty, has until December to be fully regulated, a tight deadline for tying up all the loose ends currently pending.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cGovernment-linked officials are already trying to speed up some decrees [under the new law], and some will directly affect the critical minerals council, such as which projects will go through the council and which won\u2019t,\u201d said Marisa Cesar, chair of the board of the Critical Minerals Association (AMC), which brings together companies in the supply chain for minerals such as lithium, nickel, graphite, rare earths, and copper.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The detail on which projects would be subject to that scrutiny remains one of the sector\u2019s concerns, and should be clarified as the council is regulated.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n A change of government at this moment, she said, could have altered the way the policy had been shaped so far. \u201cEven though Lula had already defined some criteria, Fl\u00e1vio could have changed the design of this policy and this council,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On the challenges ahead for the PT administration, the association cited lowering interest rates and putting together a multiparty government that can deal with the National Congress, where the PL won the largest caucus in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Brazilian Supermarket Association (Abras) also argued for maintaining policies adopted by the PT administration. Among them, it cited the zero tax rate on the basic food basket under the tax reform, the end of online betting, which increases household debt and cuts into income earmarked for buying food, and the preservation of the new rules for food and meal vouchers under the Workers\u2019 Food Program (PAT).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n _____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/30\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS RECORD 50.1% OF ANNUAL INCOME<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Delinquency also reaches historic highs as elevated interest rates strain borrowers and raise questions over the Central Bank\u2019s next move<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Brazilian household debt exceeded 50% of annual income for the first time on record, the Central Bank reported. The ratio reached 50.1% in August, its highest level since the data series began in January 2005. Delinquency on non-earmarked loans to individuals also hit a record 8.1% in September. Analysts attribute the deterioration to high interest rates and the growing share of household income devoted to debt payments.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will decide on the benchmark interest rate next Wednesday (Nov. 4), amid uncertainty over whether to extend or pause the monetary easing cycle that began in March.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Central Bank measures household indebtedness as the ratio of outstanding debt to income accumulated over the previous 12 months, using gross household disposable national income as its benchmark. The debt-service ratio, which measures the share of monthly income used to repay loans, also reached a record in August, rising to 29% from 28.8% in July.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Fernando Rocha, the Central Bank\u2019s head of statistics, said household indebtedness remains on an upward trend, despite relatively small fluctuations in recent months. \u201cAlthough household indebtedness has been fluctuating for several months, particularly throughout this year, between 49.7% and 49.9% of annual household income, it rose further in August, reaching 50.1%,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Last week, the Central Bank announced measures aimed at curbing the active, personalized marketing of expensive credit products to vulnerable borrowers. The restrictions target people whose income is insufficient to cover basic living expenses, those with limited financial knowledge due to low levels of education, borrowers who repeatedly rely on emergency credit, and those with recurring overdue balances. Central Bank Chair Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo said additional measures would be announced before the end of the year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Another warning sign is the delinquency rate on non-earmarked loans to individuals, which rose 0.1 percentage point in September to a record 8.1%. The economy-wide delinquency rate, covering all loans to households and businesses, remained at 5%, matching the highest level in the series.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Structural pressures<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sara Paix\u00e3o, a macroeconomic analyst at InvestSmart XP, said structural factors, particularly high interest rates, continue to drive delinquency despite debt renegotiation programs such as Desenrola. She warned that expectations of slower economic activity in 2027 could make it even harder for households to manage their finances.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWeaker [GDP] growth could affect job creation and increase unemployment, undermining households\u2019 ability to repay their debts and making it harder for delinquency rates to decline,\u201d Paix\u00e3o said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Rubens Sardenberg, director of economics, prudential regulation and risk at the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban), said the latest figures suggest delinquency has yet to peak.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cIt gives the impression that the process is continuing. It\u2019s not acute, and the worst phase seems to have passed, but there\u2019s still some deterioration to come.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Febraban\u2019s periodic survey of member banks projects that the delinquency rate on non-earmarked loans to individuals and businesses will reach 6.1% at the end of this year before easing to 5.9% by the close of 2027.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Goldman Sachs warned in a report that credit conditions would face headwinds in the coming months as economic growth slows, delinquency increases, and household indebtedness and debt-service burdens remain at record levels.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cHowever, lending activity by state-owned banks, together with credit lines supported by the federal government and these institutions, should continue to sustain the credit cycle,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Citi analysts also pointed to further deterioration in household credit quality, even as the overall delinquency rate held steady at 5%.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cIn consumer lending, delinquency on private-sector payroll-deductible loans increased 20 basis points month over month to 10.8%, while credit card delinquency rose 10 basis points to 10%, and personal loan delinquency remained stable at 11.1%.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Pressure on banks<\/p>\n <\/p>\n During Bradesco\u2019s third-quarter earnings presentation, held before the presidential runoff, CEO Marcelo Noronha said the macroeconomic outlook had deteriorated regardless of electoral developments. He described widespread pressure on credit quality, affecting not only Bradesco but the banking industry as a whole.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cI see a period of greater pressure ahead, but I\u2019m confident that our loan portfolio is much more tightly controlled than the market\u2019s,\u201d Noronha said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bradesco\u2019s delinquency rate rose to 4.6% in September, from 4.3% in June and 4.1% a year earlier.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n At Santander, the rate climbed to 3.4%, compared with 3.3% in June and 2.8% in the earlier comparison period. The bank said the deterioration was driven primarily by lower-income borrowers and the agribusiness sector.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Chief Financial Officer Carlos Mu\u00f1iz said credit card deterioration had previously been confined to lower-income customers but was now beginning to spread to middle-income borrowers.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cAmong high-income individual customers and businesses, performance has been reasonably good,\u201d Mu\u00f1iz said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Interest rate uncertainty<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Leandro Padulla, an economist at ASA, expects the Central Bank to cut the Selic benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 13.5% next Wednesday. However, he said the recent selloff in Brazilian assets following President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019s reelection had \u201csignificantly increased the likelihood of a hold.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cIf the committee goes ahead with the cut, we expect it to adopt a more cautious tone, acknowledging that the deterioration in financial conditions has reduced the room for further monetary easing. Under that scenario, the most likely signal would be a pause in December,\u201d Padulla said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Febraban\u2019s Sardenberg said the trajectory of delinquency in 2027 would depend heavily on the macroeconomic environment, which in turn would be shaped by the new Lula administration\u2019s policies, particularly its fiscal stance.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re in an environment where the economy is slowing down, there\u2019s no doubt about that, and this could affect employment, while household debt-service burdens are already quite high. On the other hand, banks are cautious, and riskier lending segments are slowing. So if the government addresses the fiscal issue, we could see delinquency deteriorate but at a gradually diminishing pace. However, if the market continues to price in a very high interest rate curve, there could be a significant additional deterioration [in delinquency],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tighter lending rules<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On Thursday (Oct. 29), Ita\u00fa BBA lowered its 2027 earnings forecasts for Nubank, citing continued deterioration in consumer credit conditions. Analysts warned that lower-income borrowers and unsecured lending products \u2014 two areas where the fintech has a particularly strong presence \u2014 were likely to face the greatest pressure.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n They also highlighted risks from new macroprudential measures expected to be announced soon by the Central Bank.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe measures under consideration include stricter prudential requirements for certain credit products, closer monitoring of borrowers\u2019 repayment capacity, and greater emphasis on suitability and financial affordability \u2014 the ability to meet repayment obligations \u2014 when credit is granted,\u201d the analysts said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n An industry executive said implementing the new measures would be operationally challenging but expected the Central Bank to introduce tighter restrictions. One possibility is an increase in the risk-weighting factor applied to credit card lending.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe risk-weighting factor is definitely on the table, but I have doubts about its effectiveness. If you raise the cost, that could reduce credit supply on one hand, but it could also lead to higher prices for consumers on the other. It\u2019s not a simple equation,\u201d the executive said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n ____________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n 10\/30\/2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n BRAZIL\u2019S INFLATION OUTLOOK DARKENS AFTER LULA\u2019S REELECTION<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Market forecasts point to higher inflation through 2028, raising doubts about further Selic cuts<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Markets are already bracing for a sharp deterioration in inflation expectations, which is likely to create additional challenges for Brazil\u2019s Central Bank in setting monetary policy. That is the picture emerging from a survey of about 30 market participants conducted by BGC Liquidez and shared in advance with Valor. The findings show a significant worsening in economists\u2019 outlook following President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019s reelection.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The median of the estimates collected by BGC points to inflation, as measured by the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), of 5.30% this year and in 2027, and 4.30% at the end of 2028. This represents a sharp deterioration compared with Focus, the Central Bank\u2019s weekly survey with economists, released earlier this week, when the median forecast stood at 5.19% for December, 4.34% for the end of next year and 3.75% for 2028.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe regularly speak with a large number of asset managers, who tend to revise their short-term forecasts more quickly. That allows us to anticipate Focus survey movements by one to two weeks. Based on the figures we have, the market is pricing in a 0.96-percentage-point increase in its 2027 IPCA forecast and a 0.55-point increase for 2028. I don\u2019t think that is a particularly large move,\u201d said Carlos Thadeu, an economist covering inflation and commodities at BGC Liquidez.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n He also noted that 11% of the firms surveyed now project inflation above 6%, pointing to a substantial deterioration in inflation expectations over the coming years.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Looking at the components of the 2027 forecasts, Thadeu estimates that food prices account for about 0.25 percentage points of the increase, regulated prices for 0.40 points, services for 0.31 points, and industrial goods for 0.11 points. \u201cThe biggest impact comes from fuel prices, particularly because the market understands that the government will not subsidize them indefinitely. In services, there is also considerable concern about the effects of changing the 6\u00d71 work schedule,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the BGC economist\u2019s view, the market had previously been willing to give the opposition the benefit of the doubt regarding the possibility of introducing a new fiscal anchor. \u201cWithout that, the market has been left without a clear sense of direction,\u201d he said. Economists are also deeply concerned about the effects of changes to working hours at a time when some sectors of the economy are facing labor shortages and some companies are already \u201cbeing squeezed on margins as wholesale prices rise, along with financing costs and the tax burden.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cEconomic policy is what lies behind this inflation forecast revision,\u201d Thadeu noted. He believes that, had the opposition won the presidential election, the market would have given it the benefit of the doubt regarding the possibility of a change in economic policy that could have paved the way for lower interest rates. \u201cBut now, no one expects a significant reduction in rates anymore. Interest rates will remain high over the next four years. I don\u2019t know how this will be brought into balance without a recession to ease some of the pressures,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Thadeu believes that one way to mitigate the inflationary pressures now taking shape would be to put someone in charge of economic policy whom markets view as having enough independence to pursue the fiscal agenda. \u201cThe problem is that the market is skeptical at this point,\u201d he said. In his view, the next finance minister will have a hard time earning investors\u2019 confidence. \u201cThe problem is not just the fiscal deficit, but a spending policy in which spending exceeds revenue, pushing interest rates higher and creating a feedback loop that fuels the public debt.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Some firms have already announced substantial changes to their inflation forecasts. On Wednesday (28), Buysidebrazil, led by economist Andrea Damico, said it had raised its 2027 IPCA forecast to 4.7% from 3.9%, while setting its 2028 inflation estimate at 4.0%.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Data collected by Valor in recent days also show notable upward revisions. Panamby Capital, led by former Central Bank director Reinaldo Le Grazie, raised its forecast for next year\u2019s IPCA to 5.1% from 4.0%. Banco ABC Brasil increased its estimate to 5.0% from 4.3%, while Tag Investimentos lifted its projection to 5.5% from 4.6%.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe reversal in expectations about fiscal policy happened very quickly, and this is not some abstract issue for monetary policy. It affects the basic inputs everyone uses to forecast inflation, including the Central Bank. When we went from Friday to Monday and pressed a button to update our forecasts, the Central Bank\u2019s job became more difficult,\u201d said Tiago Berriel, head of economic research at BTG Pactual, during a morning call.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cWe have seen exchange-rate forecasts revised, and we will probably see inflation expectations worsen over the relevant policy horizon in the next Focus survey. When those inputs are fed into the Central Bank\u2019s models, it will find that the room for rate cuts is uncertain,\u201d the economist stresses. He no longer sees room for another cut in the Selic policy interest rate next week. \u201cThis is an environment of considerable uncertainty. If we factor in inflation inputs, which are still deteriorating, along with the enormous uncertainty about what lies ahead, a more cautious approach seems reasonable: wait and pause the easing cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Source: Valor International<\/p>\n