{"id":100430,"date":"2026-10-30T11:49:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T14:49:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100430"},"modified":"2026-10-30T11:49:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T14:49:26","slug":"brazils-inflation-outlook-darkens-after-lulas-reelection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-inflation-outlook-darkens-after-lulas-reelection\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s inflation outlook darkens after Lula\u2019s reelection"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Market forecasts point to higher inflation through 2028, raising doubts about further Selic cuts<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-10-30T10:53:19.189-03:00\">10\/30\/2026<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-top-image\" data-block-type=\"featured-image\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"column medium-centered medium-22 large-20 desktop \" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-featured-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-featured-image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/cDXfcFb2gnrJe_74MC80Uo_l6k4=\/0x204:1816x1481\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/h\/S\/UVHuaxRaK4d99UCMvEpg\/carlos-thadeu.jpeg\" alt=\"Carlos Thadeu, of BGC Liquidez\" width=\"598\" height=\"420\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-featured-caption\"><em>Carlos Thadeu, of BGC Liquidez \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\/BGC Liquidez<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"66\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Markets are already bracing for a sharp <strong>deterioration in inflation expectations<\/strong>, which is likely to create additional challenges for Brazil\u2019s Central Bank in setting monetary policy. That is the picture emerging from a survey of about 30 market participants conducted by <strong>BGC Liquidez<\/strong> and shared in advance with <strong>Valor<\/strong>. The findings show a significant worsening in economists\u2019 outlook following <strong>President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u2019<\/strong>s reelection.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"73\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The median of the estimates collected by BGC points to inflation, as measured by the <strong>Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA)<\/strong>, of 5.30% this year and in 2027, and 4.30% at the end of 2028. This represents a sharp deterioration compared with <strong>Focus, the Central Bank\u2019s weekly survey<\/strong> with economists, released earlier this week, when the median forecast stood at 5.19% for December, 4.34% for the end of next year and 3.75% for 2028.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"78\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe regularly speak with a large number of asset managers, who tend to revise their short-term forecasts more quickly. That allows us to anticipate Focus survey movements by one to two weeks. Based on the figures we have, the market is pricing in a 0.96-percentage-point increase in its 2027 IPCA forecast and a 0.55-point increase for 2028. I don\u2019t think that is a particularly large move,\u201d said <strong>Carlos<\/strong> <strong>Thadeu<\/strong>, an economist covering inflation and commodities at BGC Liquidez.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">He also noted that 11% of the firms surveyed now project inflation above 6%, pointing to a substantial deterioration in inflation expectations over the coming years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"75\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Looking at the components of the 2027 forecasts, Thadeu estimates that food prices account for about 0.25 percentage points of the increase, regulated prices for 0.40 points, services for 0.31 points, and industrial goods for 0.11 points. \u201cThe biggest impact comes from fuel prices, particularly because the market understands that the government will not subsidize them indefinitely. In services, there is also considerable concern about the effects of changing the 6&#215;1 work schedule,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"91\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In the BGC economist\u2019s view, the market had previously been willing to give the opposition the benefit of the doubt regarding the possibility of introducing a new fiscal anchor. \u201cWithout that, the market has been left without a clear sense of direction,\u201d he said. Economists are also deeply concerned about the effects of changes to working hours at a time when some sectors of the economy are facing labor shortages and some companies are already \u201cbeing squeezed on margins as wholesale prices rise, along with financing costs and the tax burden.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"94\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cEconomic policy is what lies behind this inflation forecast revision,\u201d Thadeu noted. He believes that, had the opposition won the presidential election, the market would have given it the benefit of the doubt regarding the possibility of a change in economic policy that could have paved the way for lower interest rates. \u201cBut now, no one expects a significant reduction in rates anymore. Interest rates will remain high over the next four years. I don\u2019t know how this will be brought into balance without a recession to ease some of the pressures,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"94\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Thadeu believes that one way to mitigate the inflationary pressures now taking shape would be to put someone in charge of economic policy whom markets view as having enough independence to pursue the fiscal agenda. \u201cThe problem is that the market is skeptical at this point,\u201d he said. In his view, the next finance minister will have a hard time earning investors\u2019 confidence. \u201cThe problem is not just the fiscal deficit, but a spending policy in which spending exceeds revenue, pushing interest rates higher and creating a feedback loop that fuels the public debt.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Some firms have already announced substantial changes to their inflation forecasts. On Wednesday (28), <strong>Buysidebrazil<\/strong>, led by economist Andrea Damico, said it had raised its 2027 IPCA forecast to 4.7% from 3.9%, while setting its 2028 inflation estimate at 4.0%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Data collected by <strong>Valor<\/strong> in recent days also show notable upward revisions. Panamby Capital, led by former Central Bank director <strong>Reinaldo Le Grazie<\/strong>, raised its forecast for next year\u2019s IPCA to 5.1% from 4.0%. Banco ABC Brasil increased its estimate to 5.0% from 4.3%, while Tag Investimentos lifted its projection to 5.5% from 4.6%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"70\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe reversal in expectations about fiscal policy happened very quickly, and this is not some abstract issue for monetary policy. It affects the basic inputs everyone uses to forecast inflation, including the Central Bank. When we went from Friday to Monday and pressed a button to update our forecasts, the Central Bank\u2019s job became more difficult,\u201d said <strong>Tiago Berriel<\/strong>, head of economic research at <strong>BTG Pactual<\/strong>, during a morning call.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/2-Ke4r8fqS8AZvNENRrrWmfYppI=\/0x0:3000x2000\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/B\/h\/6NckNwTGSrZWBufqKRJw\/260126tiagoberriel19.jpg\" alt=\"Tiago Berriel, of BTG Pactual \u2014 Foto: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor\" width=\"538\" height=\"359\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Tiago Berriel, of BTG Pactual \u2014 Photo: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"102\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe have seen exchange-rate forecasts revised, and we will probably see inflation expectations worsen over the relevant policy horizon in the next Focus survey. When those inputs are fed into the Central Bank\u2019s models, it will find that the room for rate cuts is uncertain,\u201d the economist stresses. He no longer sees room for another cut in the <strong>Selic <\/strong>policy interest rate next week. \u201cThis is an environment of considerable uncertainty. If we factor in inflation inputs, which are still deteriorating, along with the enormous uncertainty about what lies ahead, a more cautious approach seems reasonable: wait and pause the easing cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Victor Rezende\u00a0, Valor \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market forecasts point to higher inflation through 2028, raising doubts about further Selic cuts &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10\/30\/2026 Carlos Thadeu, of BGC Liquidez \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\/BGC Liquidez Markets are already bracing for a sharp deterioration in inflation expectations, which is likely to create additional challenges for Brazil\u2019s Central Bank in setting monetary policy. That [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27222],"class_list":["post-100430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-inflation-outlook-darkens-after-lulas-reelection"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brazil\u2019s inflation outlook darkens after Lula\u2019s reelection - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-inflation-outlook-darkens-after-lulas-reelection\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s inflation outlook darkens after Lula\u2019s reelection - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market forecasts point to higher inflation through 2028, raising doubts about further Selic cuts &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10\/30\/2026 Carlos Thadeu, of BGC Liquidez \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\/BGC Liquidez Markets are already bracing for a sharp deterioration in inflation expectations, which is likely to create additional challenges for Brazil\u2019s Central Bank in setting monetary policy. 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