{"id":100268,"date":"2026-10-09T15:04:38","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T18:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100268"},"modified":"2026-10-09T15:04:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T18:04:38","slug":"election-rally-raises-prospect-of-lasting-market-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/election-rally-raises-prospect-of-lasting-market-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Election rally raises prospect of lasting market shift"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Investors weigh whether post-election surge marks one-off repricing or start of sustained upswing reminiscent of Brazil\u2019s investment-grade upgrade<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-10-09T06:41:03.237-03:00\">10\/09\/2026<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/ElVP6-pbIYGaGBOFq4dmVtGXs3I=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/a\/X\/KvmCzUTxihPMW69OD69Q\/foto09fin-101-cds-c1.jpg\" alt=\"Jo\u00e3o Henrique da Fonseca \u2014 Foto: Nilani Goettems\/Valor\" width=\"417\" height=\"504\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Jo\u00e3o Henrique da Fonseca \u2014 Photo: Nilani Goettems\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>The outcome of Brazil\u2019s first-round presidential election<\/strong> sent domestic financial markets soaring on October 5, producing one of the biggest single-day rallies in the country\u2019s history. With the initial excitement fading, investors are now debating whether the extraordinary gains simply reflected a sharp adjustment to an unexpected election result or marked the beginning of a sustained rise in Brazilian asset prices, similar to the cycle that followed the country\u2019s first investment-grade rating.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"71\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Sovereign risk indicators suggest investors may already be positioning for a more prolonged period of optimism. Brazil\u2019s five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread plunged 22 basis points after the election, reaching 108 basis points on Tuesday (Oct. 6), its lowest level since February 2020, before the pandemic. CDS contracts are derivatives that provide protection against default and serve as a gauge of the credit risk associated with a country or asset.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Brazil\u2019s CDS spread is now below that of some investment-grade countries<\/strong>, including Colombia, whose five-year spread stands at 164 basis points. Colombia retains its investment-grade rating from Moody\u2019s but has been downgraded to speculative grade by Fitch and S&amp;P Global.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>The gap between Brazil and Mexico<\/strong>, which holds investment-grade ratings from all three agencies, has narrowed to just <strong>14 basis points<\/strong> in recent days. A similarly small difference of 15 basis points separates Brazil from investment-grade Indonesia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazilian sovereign risk is also trading below that of countries with comparable credit ratings, including South Africa, whose five-year CDS spread currently stands near 135 basis points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"4\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>A possible regime shift<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">A strategist at a major financial institution, speaking on condition of anonymity, said <strong>investors would have to look back to 2008, when Brazil first secured investment-grade status,<\/strong> to find a similarly remarkable simultaneous rally in stocks, bonds and the currency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cEven that day fell far short, but the comparison is worth more than a good headline,\u201d the strategist joked. \u201cThe significance of investment grade was never the rally on that particular day. It was the fact that Brazil\u2019s equilibrium risk premium had changed. Suddenly, Brazil belonged to a different category. Its investor base was expanding, the cost of capital could fall structurally, and asset prices needed to adjust to a new regime.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The strategist acknowledged that Brazil did not receive a sovereign rating upgrade on Monday. Still, the market may have begun trading as though a conceptually similar shift had taken place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIf this were merely an election surprise, a move of five to seven standard deviations would be screaming: take profits, trade against the excess and move on. But if Sunday marked the beginning of a regime shift, Monday\u2019s trading session may not have been the end of the trade. It may have been the repricing that started it,\u201d the strategist said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Markets have given back some of Monday\u2019s gains in subsequent sessions, but several developments continue to support the bullish case. They include <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/markets\/news\/2026\/10\/08\/foreign-investors-pour-record-r10bn-into-brazilian-stocks.ghtml\">a record single-day inflow of foreign capital into Brazilian stocks <\/a>and one of the largest auctions of fixed-rate government bonds in the National Treasury\u2019s history, held on Thursday (Oct. 8).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Potential inflows<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">An Ita\u00fa BBA sensitivity analysis suggests Brazilian stocks could attract <strong>R$270.2 billion<\/strong> if foreign and domestic investors returned to their historical average allocations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cOf that total, 45% would come from foreign investors and 55% from domestic investors. Foreigners tend to initiate this movement, while domestic investors may increase their exposure as interest rates decline,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The bank\u2019s strategy team estimates that every 1-percentage-point increase in Brazil\u2019s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could generate <strong>R$79.3 billion <\/strong>in inflows. A return to the country\u2019s historical average weighting of 5.6%, compared with 4% currently, would represent <strong>R$123 billio<\/strong>n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cAmong domestic investors, every 1-percentage-point increase in equity allocations would represent an additional R$113.2 billion. Equity funds currently account for 7.6% of total assets under management in the fund industry,\u201d Ita\u00fa BBA said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"11\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Despite Monday\u2019s sharp gains, the bank remains bullish on Brazilian stocks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"3\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Grounds for caution<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"13\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Not everyone is convinced that Brazilian assets are poised for an extended rally.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"36\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In a recent investor letter, Azul Wealth Management examined the gains seen in Latin American markets following transitions to right-wing governments. The firm found that stock returns tend to be lackluster once the initial euphoria subsides.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cNotably, Argentina experienced the biggest break from the previous administration, which helps explain why it has so far enjoyed the longest-lasting rally in hard-currency terms. Yet even with all of [Javier] Milei\u2019s reforms, local markets have already begun delivering mediocre returns in dollars,\u201d said <strong>Jo\u00e3o Henrique da Fonseca<\/strong>, an economist and partner at the asset manager.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIf we assume that Argentina is the country undertaking the deepest reforms and that it started with the most depressed valuations, it is reasonable to presume that there is unlikely to be more hidden value in Brazil, Chile or Colombia than there was in Argentina,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"28\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Fonseca believes that even if <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong> (Liberal Party, PL) wins the presidency, investors should cautiously unwind their positions in Brazilian stocks unless significant institutional reforms materialize. A reelection victory by <strong>President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/strong> would warrant a faster exit, in his view.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIn both cases, the ultimate destination is the same: increasing positions in companies and markets that are more dynamic and better at creating equity value,\u201d he said, referring primarily to the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The economist also warned that a correction in Brazil\u2019s public finances, which he considers necessary, could narrow the interest-rate differential with the United States and put pressure on the Brazilian currency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Fiscal adjustment could also delay a recovery in earnings per share among Brazilian companies, particularly those focused on the domestic market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"36\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIndeed, if there is a change of government, we expect asset prices to rise primarily because of a shift in the valuation multiples of listed companies, rather than an actual increase in average earnings,\u201d Fonseca said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"33\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fiscal constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"34\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Canada-based BCA Research, which has maintained a bearish stance on Brazil for an extended period, dropped its negative recommendations following the first-round election result but continues to warn of significant risks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"35\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Strategists <strong>Max Malak, Arthur Budaghyan and Matt Gertken<\/strong> argue that Fl\u00e1vio, the eldest son of former President <strong>Jair Bolsonaro<\/strong>, would be unable to deliver the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilize Brazil\u2019s debt trajectory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"36\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThe expansion of government spending under Lula has been the main force keeping Brazil out of recession. Fiscal tightening that goes beyond symbolic measures could push the economy into recession,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"38\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The strategists also pointed to the gap between expectations and results during Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s presidency. Investors had anticipated sweeping structural reforms, but relatively few materialized, ultimately leading to disappointment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"39\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cBrazilian financial markets did not perform well under the previous two right-wing governments. Therefore, even if Fl\u00e1vio follows an orthodox neoliberal approach, that does not guarantee strong market performance,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"40\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">BCA\u2019s strategists believe Brazil would need an unlikely multiyear commodity boom, particularly in oil, agricultural products and iron ore, to materially improve its fiscal outlook.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"41\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Without such a boost, \u201cBrazil\u2019s nominal GDP growth will remain well below the government\u2019s borrowing costs,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"24\" data-block-id=\"42\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Under those conditions, Malak, Budaghyan and Gertken argue, a modest fiscal adjustment would not be enough to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Gabriel Roca\u00a0and Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors weigh whether post-election surge marks one-off repricing or start of sustained upswing reminiscent of Brazil\u2019s investment-grade upgrade &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10\/09\/2026 Jo\u00e3o Henrique da Fonseca \u2014 Photo: Nilani Goettems\/Valor The outcome of Brazil\u2019s first-round presidential election sent domestic financial markets soaring on October 5, producing one of the biggest single-day rallies in the country\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27195],"class_list":["post-100268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-election-rally-raises-prospect-of-lasting-market-shift"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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