{"id":100133,"date":"2026-09-29T14:39:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T17:39:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100133"},"modified":"2026-09-29T14:39:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T17:39:58","slug":"financial-strain-adds-to-brazils-economic-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/financial-strain-adds-to-brazils-economic-slowdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Financial strain adds to Brazil\u2019s economic slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Long-term yields at home and abroad offset support from stocks, currency and other market indicators, reinforcing expectations of weaker growth<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-29T06:55:32.527-03:00\">09\/29\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-top-image\" data-block-type=\"featured-image\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"column medium-centered medium-22 large-20 desktop \" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-featured-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-featured-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/Gjsnxk-SsXlIO0RDeE_Y0nsMrGU=\/0x0:1153x1028\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/i\/u\/ttTQIqQ32h2hole7BiLg\/foto29fin-101-condocoes-c1.jpg\" alt=\"Alessandra Ribeiro\" width=\"461\" height=\"411\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-featured-caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"34\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Brazil\u2019s financial conditions have remained restrictive since March, driven mainly by fixed income, as the Selic rate declines only gradually from 13.75% and long-term borrowing costs stay under pressure both at home and abroad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Higher external risk explains much of this year\u2019s tightening. In Brazil, however, market interest rates also reflect worsening fiscal concerns and rising public debt, which have pushed investors to demand higher risk premiums.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>The Financial Conditions Index,<\/strong> or FCI, compiled by Tend\u00eancias Consultoria using the Central Bank\u2019s model as a reference, has remained in contractionary territory since March, when local and global markets deteriorated sharply following the outbreak of the conflict involving the United States, Iran and Israel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The index reached 1.23 point at the end of March and has since become more volatile, while remaining in restrictive territory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The indicator combines price components, <strong>including commodity indexes, oil prices and the exchange rate, <\/strong>with market variables such as Brazilian and international stock indexes. It also incorporates risk measures including credit default swap (CDS) movements, volatility indexes and domestic and international interest rates, which carry the greatest weight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">A negative reading signals expansionary financial conditions that support economic activity. A reading above zero, as at present, points to tighter conditions and a less favorable environment for growth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In practice, the sharp rise in long-term global interest rates has offset improvements in domestic factors that could otherwise ease financial conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"50\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The surge in U.S. Treasury yields has prevented a stronger decline in Brazil\u2019s long-term rates, even as the Selic falls and the stock market gains on expectations of a close election between <strong>Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva <\/strong>of the Workers\u2019 Party (PT) and <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong> of the Liberal Party (PL).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"62\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cInterest rates abroad are the main source of tightening, followed by oil and, to some extent, currency movements, with the dollar gaining a little more traction,\u201d said <strong>Alessandra Ribeiro<\/strong>, partner and director of macroeconomics and sector analysis at Tend\u00eancias. \u201cBut overall, interest rates account for much of the index\u2019s movement, which has come under greater pressure again after a very volatile year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Ribeiro said the FCI is at its highest levels since April, showing that financial conditions have been tight for much of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cAnd the level is not low. We are now seeing the effects on economic activity, with models showing that financial conditions begin to affect the economy after one quarter and that the impact lasts for as long as four quarters. In other words, this will affect activity,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Growth outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Tend\u00eancias says market performance \u201conly reinforces the scenario of a further slowdown in activity in the second half.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The consultancy expects <strong>gross domestic product to grow by an average of just 0.1%<\/strong> in the second half of this year, leaving a carryover of only 0.3% for 2027.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Tend\u00eancias forecasts <strong>GDP growth of 1.8% this year <\/strong>and j<strong>ust 1% in 2027<\/strong>, underscoring its view that the economy will lose momentum as domestic interest rates remain under pressure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"36\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIf we look at local assets, interest rates are pushing financial conditions toward tightening, while other markets have contributed more positively,\u201d Ribeiro said, referring to CDS and capital markets, which have helped limit the overall tightening.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/VBqFB-uidKYyf-JwZU5yr2ipWXw=\/0x0:5760x3840\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/p\/C\/R4t5fJRXi9J0HXn2tx4Q\/220623-daycoval3.jpg\" alt=\"Rafael Cardoso \u2014 Foto: Anna Carolina Negri\/Valor\" width=\"464\" height=\"310\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Rafael Cardoso \u2014 Photo: Anna Carolina Negri\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Diverging signals<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Daycoval chief economist, <strong>Rafael Cardos<\/strong>o, also sees domestic interest rates as a source of financial tightening, although the bank\u2019s own FCI currently points to expansionary conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">One of the main differences from the Central Bank framework involves higher oil prices. Daycoval treats them as a source of financial easing because Brazil is an oil exporter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cSome components, such as capital markets, the local exchange rate and the performance of emerging-market currencies, end up pushing the index into expansionary territory. But high domestic interest rates and credit delinquency are two factors pointing to very contractionary financial conditions,\u201d Cardoso said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"19\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Although Daycoval\u2019s FCI currently signals expansion, Cardoso said the index is only one input in the bank\u2019s GDP forecasts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe know that all indicators have their problems, and the FCI does not capture the duration of monetary tightening,\u201d he said. \u201cIt may show a reading close to neutral, or slightly expansionary, but a prolonged period of tight conditions can produce weaker activity than expected.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"9\" data-block-id=\"28\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Cardoso said that appears to be the case now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cAn FCI close to neutral should point to GDP growth near its potential rate of 2%, but we forecast growth of 1.2% in 2027. Once we move away from the indicator itself, GDP appears likely to perform more weakly than current financial conditions would suggest,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-media__image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/9ZdoPNK2tw6xcN0U1v6a2FiRXV0=\/0x0:3840x2560\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/S\/h\/uKvDoDTc29YzLkYYSi5Q\/240926vivest3.jpg\" alt=\"Andr\u00e9 L\u00f3es \u2014 Foto: Gabriel Reis\/Valor\" width=\"517\" height=\"345\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Andr\u00e9 L\u00f3es \u2014 Photo: Gabriel Reis\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"31\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fiscal pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"32\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Vivest chief economist, <strong>Andr\u00e9 L\u00f3es<\/strong>, takes a similar view, saying financial conditions are severely strained in fixed income, though less so in the foreign-exchange market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"36\" data-block-id=\"33\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cIf public-debt holders receive bad news after the election about fiscal proposals, conditions will deteriorate because the yield curve will not come down and there is also a chance the exchange rate could weaken,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"34\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">L\u00f3es said investors naturally focus on the direction of monetary and fiscal policy, but private-sector decisions also create an underlying trend that feeds into financial conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"36\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cThey end up being extremely important. Ultimately, when we reach a situation in which people are worried, the impact of economic policy itself starts to become limited. In other words, fiscal expansion does not help if people respond by consuming less,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"16\" data-block-id=\"37\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Financial conditions are therefore becoming increasingly important in assessing what comes next for Brazil, L\u00f3es said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"38\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cAnd because the major imbalance is fiscal, fiscal adjustment becomes very important. Otherwise, it will not be possible to untie the knot in financial conditions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"39\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe do not have a balance-of-payments problem, and we managed to bring inflation down to civilized levels, although the sacrifice ratio was very high precisely because of the other imbalances,\u201d L\u00f3es said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"40\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe have three problems today: fiscal, fiscal and fiscal. If we start addressing that, we can move beyond the very short-term issues and complete the work we began 30 years ago: stabilizing the Brazilian economy and focusing on productivity growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By Gabriel Roca and Victor Rezende, Valor \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long-term yields at home and abroad offset support from stocks, currency and other market indicators, reinforcing expectations of weaker growth &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 09\/29\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s financial conditions have remained restrictive since March, driven mainly by fixed income, as the Selic rate declines only gradually from 13.75% and long-term borrowing costs stay under pressure both at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27175],"class_list":["post-100133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-financial-strain-adds-to-brazils-economic-slowdown"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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