{"id":100085,"date":"2026-09-23T16:43:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T19:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100085"},"modified":"2026-09-23T16:43:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T19:43:14","slug":"central-bank-flags-slowdown-keeps-november-cut-in-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-flags-slowdown-keeps-november-cut-in-play\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank flags slowdown, keeps November cut in play"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Minutes focus on weaker activity and credit conditions as markets keep odds of another 25-basis-point reduction alive despite election uncertainty<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Ariane Benedito \u2014 Photo: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Despite few changes from its previous communication, the minutes of last week\u2019s meeting of the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reinforced the market\u2019s view that policymakers are closely watching the slowdown in economic activity and developments in credit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The document also kept alive expectations that the benchmark Selic rate could be cut at least once more in November, although market pricing stops short of fully factoring in another reduction amid uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Compared with the August minutes, Copom made no significant changes to its discussion of how monetary policy should be conducted. Investors, however, saw meaningful shifts in its assessment of the economic outlook and balance of risks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Central Bank placed greater emphasis on slowing activity, a view reinforced by second-quarter gross domestic product data, which \u201cconfirmed the slowdown\u201d and \u201crevealed that the movement was more intense in economic activities and demand components that are more sensitive to the economic cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Credit conditions also returned to the minutes after being absent from the previous document. Copom said developments in bank lending have been \u201cconsistent with a slowdown in growth,\u201d while longer-term credit categories have declined.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Short-term and emergency credit lines, which tend to be more expensive, \u201ccontinued to grow, although at a slower pace at the margin,\u201d the minutes said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Although investors read the document as more dovish, given Copom\u2019s assessment of the economy, interest-rate futures were volatile and ended the Tuesday (Sept. 22) session little changed. The January 2028 DI (Interbank Deposit) futures rate fell to 13.48% from a previous settlement of 13.53%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the options market, the implied probability of another 25-basis-point Selic cut in November remained at 67%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Signs of restraint<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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PicPay has long expected the Selic rate to fall to 13.5%. The bank\u2019s chief economist, Ariane Benedito, <\/strong>said the minutes reinforced the impression that the Central Bank is \u201cvery comfortable\u201d with the rate cut already delivered and consolidated the view that the monetary easing process is \u201cadvanced and effective.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Benedito said Copom also appeared more at ease with signs that the economy is losing momentum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIn the more cyclical segments, it made clear that the latest indicators point to a slowdown and that GDP confirmed this trend. It also mentions longer-term credit and makes clear that it is already seeing the effects of tight monetary policy in the composition of longer-term lending,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cDespite that, there is no stronger signal,\u201d Benedito said. She added that the Central Bank appears concerned about the risk premiums demanded by investors, particularly as anxiety builds ahead of the presidential election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cWe expect normal volatility. Of course, the market will move a lot and issues such as confidence and candidates\u2019 proposals will come into play… But given external and liquidity conditions, as long as there is no major disruption in financial markets, investors tend over time to return their focus to the current data.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Monte Bravo chief economist, Ra\u00ed Chicoli, <\/strong>said the credit discussion added to the minutes did not point to an extreme scenario as the most likely outcome, but he is increasingly concerned about high household delinquency rates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Chicoli said the Monetary Policy Report<\/strong>, due Thursday (Sept. 24), should provide more detail on households\u2019 debt-service burden and overall indebtedness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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External risks<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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As a counterweight to a domestic backdrop that could support further Selic cuts, the minutes described the global environment as uncertain and highlighted risks stemming from higher oil prices and monetary policy in advanced economies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Chicoli, however, does not see the external backdrop as the main driver of Copom\u2019s next moves unless the war in the Middle East either ends or escalates significantly over the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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He said economic activity and investors\u2019 assessment of fiscal policy after the election are likely to shape the Selic\u2019s near-term path. Chicoli does not rule out a faster pace of easing if the post-election environment becomes significantly more favorable, but for now expects two more 25-basis-point cuts this year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Election uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bank of America economists led by David Beker<\/strong>, head of Brazil economics and Latin America strategy, said the election adds uncertainty to the November meeting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cBy the next Copom meeting, Brazil\u2019s new president will already have been elected. Regardless of the election outcome, we believe there is room for interest-rate cuts to continue. Still, if there is a significant currency depreciation after the election, the cutting cycle could be shallower than we currently expect,\u201d the team said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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J.P. Morgan\u2019s Brazil economists, led by Vinicius Moreira,<\/strong> said the minutes reinforced the Central Bank\u2019s emphasis on a data-dependent approach. Based on the bank\u2019s inflation and activity forecasts, they continue to expect the Selic to remain at 13.75% as their base case.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cFurthermore, consensus inflation expectations are further from the target than when the Central Bank began the calibration cycle and, according to the Central Bank\u2019s own model, inflation does not converge to the target at least until the first quarter of 2028 in a scenario in which the Selic remains unchanged through the end of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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However, the J.P. Morgan economists acknowledged downside risks to their interest-rate forecast.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cRecent activity data have generally come in below expectations, and the medium-term growth outlook has deteriorated, partly because of the high cost of debt service across much of the economy. In addition, although inflation remains persistently above target, it has been surprising to the downside.\u201d<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0 Gabriel Caldeira,Victor Rezende and Hamilton Ferrari\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo and Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Minutes focus on weaker activity and credit conditions as markets keep odds of another 25-basis-point reduction alive despite election uncertainty         09\/23\/2026 Ariane Benedito \u2014 Photo: Rogerio Vieira\/Valor Despite few changes from its previous communication, the minutes of last week\u2019s meeting of the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reinforced the market\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27165,27166],"class_list":["post-100085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-central-bank-flags-slowdown","tag-keeps-november-cut-in-play"],"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank flags slowdown, keeps November cut in play - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-flags-slowdown-keeps-november-cut-in-play\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank flags slowdown, keeps November cut in play - 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