{"id":100064,"date":"2026-09-22T12:18:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T15:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=100064"},"modified":"2026-09-22T12:18:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T15:18:41","slug":"real-stands-out-as-brazils-election-race-stays-tight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/real-stands-out-as-brazils-election-race-stays-tight\/","title":{"rendered":"Real stands out as Brazil\u2019s election race stays tight"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Prospect of change in government fuels demand for Brazilian stocks and currency, while strategists warn fiscal risks remain under either candidate<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-22T08:01:10.936-03:00\">09\/22\/2026\u00a0<\/time><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/K_Zu5hjhoQFaE95H7UVYCdfVkcg=\/0x0:1170x780\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2026\/Y\/A\/PTqBxUR5S878Z0MAR9sQ\/photo-1740592910127-dfb0ad810bb7.avif\" alt=\"Brazil\u2019s real outperformed most major currencies as election uncertainty remained in focus \u2014 Foto: Daniel Dan\/Unsplash\" width=\"327\" height=\"218\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body ready cropped\">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-media content-photo\" data-block-type=\"backstage-photo\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-media__container\" data-image-display=\"normal\">\n<div class=\"content-media-container\" style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure class=\"content-media__figure\"><figcaption class=\"content-media__description\"><em>Brazil\u2019s real outperformed most major currencies as election uncertainty remained in focus \u2014 Photo: Daniel Dan\/Unsplash<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column mc-side-item__container\" data-block-type=\"ads\" data-block-id=\"1\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"38\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Renewed expectations of a change in government after Brazil\u2019s October presidential election boosted risk appetite in local markets, helping some assets outperform emerging-market peers. The real was among the five strongest currencies tracked by Valor on Monday (21).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In fixed income, expectations of an opposition victory also drove a decline in risk premiums across most of the interest-rate curve, with the exception of the very short end. The local risk-on mood received further support from global markets, as oil prices fell for a fourth straight session and government bond yields declined broadly across developed economies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The stronger appetite for risk also lifted the benchmark Ibovespa stock index back above 186,000 points. Gains were held back by declines in mining company Vale and oil giant Petrobras shares.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The move came alongside a surge in major U.S. stock indexes, led by the Nasdaq, which closed at a record 27,122.094 points, surpassing its previous closing high of 27,093.901 reached in June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Fiscal caution<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Although the latest polls continue to show President <strong>Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/strong> of the Workers\u2019 Party (PT) and Senator <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong> of the Liberal Party (PL) statistically tied in a potential runoff, Deutsche Bank\u2019s Latin America economics and strategy team sees reason for caution.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The bank\u2019s analysts said either candidate would face difficulty delivering substantial fiscal adjustment early in the next administration because of a \u201chighly fragmented political landscape.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"20\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">In a report, the team said only a \u201cmodest\u201d political and fiscal risk premium is currently priced into fixed income.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cWe see lower rates under most fiscal regimes, but remain cautious given a tight election and fiscal uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The strategists are therefore maintaining only a curve-steepening position, designed to benefit from a wider gap between January 2029 and January 2031 DI (Interbank Deposit) futures rates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"22\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">On Monday, the January 2029 rate fell to 13.71% from 13.83%, while the January 2031 rate dropped sharply to 13.91% from 14.03%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Equity gains<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The decline in futures rates helped bolster the Ibovespa, which closed 0.74% higher at 186,596 points. Gains were limited by a 1.12% drop in <strong>Vale <\/strong>and a 1.03% decline in <strong>Petrobras<\/strong> preferred shares.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"24\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Beyond supporting the broader market, expectations of a possible change in government have recently increased demand for somewhat riskier stocks, Bank of America said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"25\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">BofA analysts said in a report that local investors have become more constructive on Brazilian equities, while foreign investors remain reluctant to increase risk exposure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Defensive positioning remains concentrated in names such as electrical equipment maker <strong>WEG<\/strong> and infrastructure operator <strong>Motiva<\/strong>, while a higher-beta basket led by car rental company <strong>Localiza<\/strong>, toll-road operator <strong>EcoRodovias<\/strong> and truck and machinery rental company Vamos has attracted more interest, mainly as a tactical adjustment to the macroeconomic outlook.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\"><strong>Real outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"41\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Some foreign banks are also taking a more cautious view of the real. Deutsche Bank has reduced its position in the currency and now holds a neutral view, warning that \u201crisks remain two-sided and positioning looks stretched\u201d ahead of the election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">\u201cNear-term risks are rising as fiscal and political concerns related to the elections intensify and seasonality turns less favorable in the second half. All of this is happening against an external backdrop that is less supportive for emerging-market currencies,\u201d economists and strategists <strong>Francisco Campos,<\/strong> <strong>Beatriz Nunes<\/strong>, <strong>Christian Rojas<\/strong> and <strong>Carlos Mu\u00f1oz-Carcamo<\/strong> said in a report.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The Deutsche Bank team nevertheless said Brazil\u2019s favorable external accounts and high carry continue to support the real.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"18\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">The exchange rate per U.S. dollar closed 0.7% lower at R$5.10 in the local market on Monday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials during the day may have supported the U.S. currency, even as Treasury yields fell at the intermediate and long end of the curve. Short-term yields edged higher.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"27\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Late in the session, the two-year Treasury yield was at 4.75%, up from 4.75% in the previous session, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.97% from 4.99%.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">*By\u00a0Bruna Furlani,Maria Fernanda Salinet,Arthur Cagliari,Luana ReisandGabriel Caldeira\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prospect of change in government fuels demand for Brazilian stocks and currency, while strategists warn fiscal risks remain under either candidate &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 09\/22\/2026\u00a0 Brazil\u2019s real outperformed most major currencies as election uncertainty remained in focus \u2014 Photo: Daniel Dan\/Unsplash Renewed expectations of a change in government after Brazil\u2019s October presidential election boosted risk [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[27162],"class_list":["post-100064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-prospect-of-change-in-government-fuels-demand-for-brazilian-stocks-and-currency"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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