The Brazilian stock market seems to be purposefully ignoring the country’s economic reality.
On the same day that one more important economic indicator frustrates expectations, the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa) hits another nominal record, closing near 100,000 points.
On Monday (18th), the IBC-Br, the Central Bank activity indicator – considered a preview of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth – fell 0.41% in January, in comparison to December.
The number is well under the market’s expectations.
At Bovespa, however, the frustration didn’t make a blip. It reached 100,000 during the trading day and closed a little below the all-time high of 99,993 points. The day closed 0.86% higher than the day before.
Also on Monday, economists adjusted their expectations for the 2019 GDP. They now expect a 2% growth, whereas one week ago the predictions were of 2.28%. Back in June 2018, the projected growth was 3%.
On Friday (15th), Bovespa reached 99.136 points, after a weeklong of disappointing indicators in all industries: manufacturing, retail, and services.
“It’s hard to say that the Stock Exchange is going up because president Bolsonaro said this or that. I still think that the main reason is the global markets’ good mood,” said Santander’s financial strategist Ricardo Peretti.
Peretti says that São Paulo is merely following the other stock markets in the US and Europe that started March on a downward trend, and then recovered the following week, and have also been reaching peak indexes.
Source: Folha